“There were those who rushed to give their judgements on the 8th June vote. These were mostly superficial and premature with a main flaw being they failed to allow for both the European and Local election results to be tallied.

I will limit myself to hard facts together with some cold-blooded analysis.

The PN made limited gains in both elections, faring marginally better in the European Parliament elections. Its share of votes continued to hover just over the 40% mark in both elections, a range it has not managed to detach itself from over the past decade and a half.

The PL lost ground, but the main shift was towards abstention, spoilt ballots and independents, especially in the European elections. The signal by Labour-leaning voters was measured and ponderate, with a considerable number going to the stretch of voting in different ways on the two ballots cast simultaneously on the same day.

They moved away from their party mostly in the vote they believe affects government least. So much for the myth of the blinkered Labour voter. This can be characterised as a “soft” defection, the extent of which will have probably shocked even those who participated themselves, and who wanted to dent rather than slash the government’s towering majority in order to keep it more grounded.

The Polls

Vincent Marmara’s opinion polls were spot on with regard to the PN share of votes (40/41% vs 42%). All polls published by all media failed across the board to gauge the extent of Labour’s partial dissent in the European elections (50/51% vs 45%).
Many Labour voters who shifted to independent candidates in the European elections, chose to remain in the fold in the Local elections, giving Labour the majority share (in Local elections) which was predicted in Vince’s surveys (for European elections). Overall, opinion polls are still the best electoral prediction tool and Dr Marmara is, by far, the country’s most reliable pollster.

Labour results

I will not enter into the merits of the Labour result. Is it because of Joseph Muscat (both positively and negatively)? Is it because of government performance? Is it because of personal issues? Experience has taught me that trying to box electors in stereotypes is usually an elusive exercise.

Rather, Labour’s answer should be to re-establish contact with its voters, core and marginal, something that all now admit has been eroded. In doing so, it has to continue being a broad church for progressives and moderates rather than embarking on kneejerk reactions, well-intentioned and welcome as they might be, which are not properly thought out and which need an unequivocal electoral mandate. There needs to be a clear strategy and rationale to unite rather than divide for change.

The key question that any political force has to answer to remain relevant is “What do we stand for ?” The answer cannot be some focus group engineered collection of empty words or a generic term like the ones we are mostly hearing recently. The answer has to be connected to the real needs of Malta’s extended middle class, including those aspiring to become part of it. Phrases like “governance” in the Opposition hymn sheet, or “quality of life” in the Government playbook, as favoured as they might be by talking heads, sound hollow and detached in the ears of many people. As Frank Luntz succinctly puts it, “It is not what you say, it is what they hear.”

Independent candidates

This time round, independent candidates, have come across as more authentic, answering clearly what they stand for in a way they connect to people. Arnold Cassola might have garnered a record number of votes, but the real top performer was Conrad Borg Manche, who tallied impressive results in both ballots with a modest budget, limited channels and without resorting to repetitive stunts. My experience of Conrad is that he can be a real pain but he is genuine and I do hope he returns to Labour.

Most independents still lack the credibility to break through in the national system (I do not believe it is solely a matter of the electoral system), but voters are becoming increasingly comfortable in voting for them in Local Councils and European Parliament elections. In fact, we have never seen as many hung councils as we have seen this time round. I do believe that in five years time there will be many more people, especially the younger generation, who will choose this channel to involve themselves in public life.

Back to Labour, it is a case of the party needing to change to meet the needs of the society which it is helping change, unless it wants to become a victim of its own success. This is better done through direct contact with people rather than relying on the agenda ridden opinions of pundits. It needs to be less about Facebook and more about real and genuine face time with people as the results show that Malta still wants Labour.

To be clear, I can find no fault in Labour’s campaign. It was extremely well organised and focused. The only thing that was out of synch was the reaction to the European election result. The celebration on Sunday afternoon jarred with the general feeling of Labour voters when taking in the vote.

The PN

For the PN, the good news is that Labour decreased its majority. The bad news is that it hardly made any major inroads. Had there been only the European elections, the party might have argued otherwise, as it did between Sunday and Wednesday.

But a comparison of both election results will have shown the level-headed people that the opposition is mostly running on the spot. That nagging feeling was clear in the change of tone in the past couple of days as Local election results came in.

PN is going nowhere unless it stops its fringe groups from forging for it a stand based on the politics of hate and envy, be it perceived or otherwise. If it is simply happy with reducing the gap through the partial losses of others, rather than its own gains, then it does so at its own risk.”

Do you agree with his analysis? Let us know in the comments below