Even more significantly for Attard, the survey found that he will inherit 43.2% of Agius Saliba’s second-preference votes, putting him well ahead of Clint Azzopardi Flores (18%), Steve Ellul (16.4%), Claudette Abela Baldacchino (11.9%), and Thomas Bajada (3.2%).

This could give Attard a huge boost if Agius Saliba reaches the quota of votes necessary for re-election, which will see his surplus votes inherited among the other candidates.

On the PN’s side, long-serving MEP David Casa doesn’t feature among the top ten candidates in terms of first-preference votes.

However, he looks set to inherit the lion’s share (45.1%) of Metsola’s votes, putting him well ahead of Peter Agius (30.8%), David Agius (15.4%), Norma Camilleri (5.6%), and Miriana Calleja Testaferrata de Noto (3.3%).

This survey indicates that Metsola, Agius Saliba, Attard, and Casa will all get elected to the European Parliament. Assessing the favourites for the remaining two seats is a trickier task as a lot will depend on the inherited votes of candidates who get eliminated during the count.

Clint Azzopardi Flores (PL), Steve Ellul (PL), Norman Lowell (Imperium Europa), Norma Camilleri (PN), Sandra Gauci (ADPD), Arnold Cassola (independent), and Peter Agius (PN)  make up the rest of the top ten in terms of first-preference votes.

However, Peter Agius also stands to win most of Casa’s excess votes (46.8%), ahead of David Agius (26.1%) and Norma Camilleri (7.4%).

Clint Azzopardi Flores stands to win most of Attard’s excess votes (31.3%), ahead of Steve Ellul (20.7%) and Marija Sara Vella Gafa (11.5%).

The survey was carried out online between 11th and 17th April, with stratified sampling to mirror the demographic composition of the electorate, including age, gender, geographic location and education.

With a sample size of 1,618, the findings have a margin of error of 2.48% at a 95% confidence level.

This action was co-financed by the European Union in the frame of the European Parliament’s grant programme in the field of communication. The European Parliament was not involved in its preparation and is, in no case, responsible for or bound by the information or opinions expressed in the context of this action. In accordance with applicable law, the authors, interviewed people, publishers or programme broadcasters are solely responsible. The European Parliament can also not be held liable for direct or indirect damage that may result from the implementation of the action.

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