Last month officially became the hottest January on record, according to Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, defying expectations that cooler La Niña conditions might ease rising global temperatures.

January was 1.75°C hotter than pre-industrial levels, continuing a streak of unprecedented heat throughout 2023 and 2024, which is largely being fuelled by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

Scientists anticipated a shift towards La Niña, a climate phenomenon known to cool global temperatures, after the warming effects of El Niño peaked in early 2024. However, the expected cooling hasn’t materialised, leaving climate experts questioning what else is amplifying global heat.

“This is what makes it a bit of a surprise… you’re not seeing this cooling effect, or even a temporary brake on global temperatures,” said Copernicus climate scientist Julien Nicolas.

Adding to the concern, Copernicus reported exceptionally warm ocean temperatures, with sea surface readings in January ranking the second-highest on record. Warmer oceans mean more stored heat, which could continue to fuel rising temperatures.

While this record-breaking month doesn’t yet signal a permanent breach of the 1.5°C warming limit set by the Paris Agreement, it underscores how dangerously close the planet is to surpassing that threshold.

Arctic sea ice levels also hit record lows, nearly matching those of 2018, and scientists warn that every fraction of warming increases the frequency of extreme weather, from heatwaves to droughts and severe storms.

Looking ahead, 2025 is not expected to be as extreme as 2023 and 2024, but scientists predict it will still be the third hottest year on record.

The scientific community agrees that fossil fuel burning is the dominant driver of long-term warming, but there’s still debate about why temperatures are pushing the top end of expectations so persistently.

Some theories include a global shift to cleaner shipping fuels in 2020, which reduced sulphur emissions that had previously helped reflect sunlight away, and changes in cloud cover, potentially allowing more heat to reach Earth’s surface.

What do you make of this growing reality?