Rising temperatures and decreasing daily infections have finally become the new normal for Malta. But with the light at the end of this long COVID-19 tunnel getting brighter and brighter every single day, the islands could very well hit zero active cases before summer even starts.
Last week, active cases of COVID-19 constantly went down by varying margins, from eight on Wednesday to a whopping 22 just yesterday. The average number by which active cases have gone down on a daily basis this week was 12.5.
Now, with 41 days to go until the first day of summer, Malta’s active cases stand at 213.
So what do we need to hit zero before Sunday 20th June 2021? Well, it’s actually very doable with current patterns.
If Malta’s active cases go down by an average of around five people per day, the islands will have zero active cases on the first day of summer.
And considering the current average is more than double that, this awesome milestone is very well within our reach.
Of course, there’s a number of variables that need to be taken into account here.
First of all, this daily number is the result of subtracting new recoveries from new cases. And now that new cases have thankfully gone drastically down in the last weeks, the coming weeks’ recoveries will also go down to reflect that. Simply put, with fewer people getting infected now, there’s going to be fewer patients to recover in the future.
Having said that, if the current ratio of new cases and recoveries persists into the rest of May and the first half of June, the “zero by summer” target should still be attainable.
Another important variable to consider is that, every couple of weeks for the rest of the month, more and more COVID-19 restrictions will be lifted as the country excitedly shuffles back to normality. And while that is a great and much-needed milestone in itself, some rise in cases should always be expected with the lifting of measures. Hopefully – and has been the case with other scenarios – this rise will be mostly insignificant thanks to the cooperating public and the vigilant authorities.
There’s also another vital variable to consider – those two and a half weeks between 1st and 20th June when Malta officially reopens its borders for tourism.
And here more than anywhere else, it is how strict and efficient Malta’s enforcement is that will help us keep that infections vs recoveries ratio in the great pattern it’s been these last few weeks.
The good thing is that, unlike what happened back in summer 2020, we should now know what works… and what doesn’t.
At the end of the day, though, there’s another COVID-19 number that we’re happy to see constantly rising… and it’s the one that holds the largest potential
It’s damn near impossible to overstate the importance of Malta’s fast vaccine roll-out.
With 60% of the country’s adult population already inoculated at least once and 121,185 people fully vaccinated as of this morning, Malta is set to start putting jabs in its late teens and 20-year-olds very soon.
And as more people become fully protected against the virus and reopening the country stops being the risk it was last summer, the probability of Malta hitting such a desirable milestone only increases.
At the end of the day, though, this is a target we will only achieve if we work on it together. We’ve seen how true this is in 2020… we just need to remember it for 2021.