The study, led by University of Malta biology professor Victor Axiak, links the deterioration to rapid population growth and especially increased tourism. Trends suggest that within a year, St George’s Bay could reach the contamination levels of Balluta Bay—currently considered Malta’s worst for bathing water. St Paul’s Bay, another popular beach, could face similar levels within three years.

Axiak, an environmental consultant, has urged authorities to halt further development in both areas. St Paul’s Bay’s population has doubled over ten years, and major construction is underway in St George’s Bay, including high-rise towers by developer db Group and proposed plans for three hotels at Villa Rosa.

The study analysed E. coli bacteria levels at seven beaches—Sliema, St George’s Bay, St Paul’s Bay, Mellieħa Bay, Xlendi, Golden Bay, and Għajn Tuffieħa—using summer water samples collected annually from 2013 to 2024 (excluding times when beaches were closed due to temporary pollution). Results showed an increase in bacteria at all beaches, with Xlendi and St George’s Bay showing the highest levels and Golden Bay the lowest.

The most dramatic change occurred at St George’s Bay, which showed a steady and significant rise in bacteria, transforming it from a top-tier beach in 2013 to one of the worst by 2024.

Despite the rise, 99.5% of the beaches still met the EU’s minimum water quality standards.

Axiak also examined national data on population growth and tourism. Malta’s resident population grew by about 27% over the study period, while the combined effect of residents and tourist stays pushed the estimated increase to 30%.

He found that population growth had a significant impact on water quality at nearly all beaches, except for Xlendi and Għajn Tuffieħa. Tourism, however, had a strong effect only at St George’s Bay and Għajn Tuffieħa, pointing to uneven tourist distribution across beaches.

The study also highlighted an unusual spike in bacteria at Xlendi in 2015–2016, likely due to farm runoff. Additionally, 2019 saw a widespread rise in bacterial levels across most beaches, the causes of which are still under review.

Professor Axiak expressed serious concern over the strain foreign residents and tourists are placing on Malta’s infrastructure and coastal ecosystems. He warned that unless development is curbed—particularly around St George’s and St Paul’s Bays—Malta risks losing the clean waters that are a major draw for tourists.

He concluded by calling for a major rethink of Malta’s economic model. Future strategies, he said, must prioritize quality over quantity, with stricter controls on both foreign residents and tourist numbers to protect the island’s environmental health.