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Which of the two parties suffered most from known supporters invalidating their vote is difficult to predict, though one can assume that a majority would have been the result of unfilled voter requests by those in power.

Not much change since 2017

Going into the election, nobody was expecting a PN win, but most were probably surprised by the fact that Labour was again able to increase its majority.

This was perfectly illustrated by former PN MP Franco Debono a few days before the election, after the publication of a survey showing Labour cruising to another record victory.

“Surveys show a wide gap. People in the street say the gap will decrease. The sentiment in the streets is very different to the surveys. What do you think?” Debono asked in one of his Facebook posts.

On the face of it, the two observations did seem to be contradictory, but in reality, both proved to be more or less correct.

The surveys were right to show Labour leading PN by a large margin, but it is also true that dissatisfaction with the government was on the rise and more noticeable than last time round.

The result saw Labour’s vote share exceeding that of the PN by a margin of 13.36 percentage points, two higher than the gap recorded in 2017.

On both occasions Labour obtained roughly 55.1% of the vote. The PN, however, saw its vote share fall from 43.68% in 2017 to 41.74% last weekend.

But percentages only tell a part of the story. The low turnout was one of the election’s defining characteristics, and one which saw around 10,000 fewer people than the last election casting their vote.

This despite the fact there were 15,000 additional eligible voters, including some 8,000 16 and 17-year old voters who were given the right to vote for the first time.

In fact, Labour saw the votes it obtained fall from 170,976 in 2017 to 162,707 – a 8,269 reduction. The PN on the other hand went from 135,696 to 123,233 – a 12,463-vote difference.

Considering that the PN’s 2017 result included votes received by PD – roughly 4,000 votes – one can assume that both parties effectively lost roughly 8,000 votes when compared to their last general election outing.

Only Gonzi administration had lower support

Elections are won on the basis of votes cast and to a certain extent that is all that matters.

On the other hand, it is also true that people influence each other, and their opinions change over time. In this respect, the lack of participation will undoubtedly be closely analysed by all of Malta’s parties.

It is safe to say that the observation reflects a lack of faith in Opposition, and perhaps more importantly, the government.

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In fact, taken as a percentage of the total eligible voters, the incoming administration has a 45.8% approval rating, which, with the exception of the 2008 Gonzi administration (45.5%), is the lowest registered since 1966.

The drop in support registered by the government is comparable to that registered by the PN between 2003 and 2008. The flip side to this is of course that the Opposition is also the least popular in history, though it is the government that obviously stands to lose most support with time.

In general, once elected to government parties tend to increase or retain a similar share of the public’s support at the end of their first legislature, before seeing their support among the general public start to wane.

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Between 1971 and 1996, the pattern was more or less consistent, if one assumes that the 1981 election, in terms of votes won, should have gone to the PN. After the PN was elected back to government in 1998, it retained its support for another legislature before seeing it plummet in 2008.

That year, the PN’s use of its power of incumbency together with the fact that the electorate could clearly not accept then Labour leader Alfred Sant, meant it stayed on in government for an additional five years.

Labour won the MEP elections the following year by a margin of roughly 35,000 votes, indicating that the general public was sticking to its ten year cycle and was already over the PN in 2009.

The party would go on to win the 2013 election with the support of 50.3% of eligible voters – the first time any party has exceeded 50%.

End of Labour’s cycle or new chapter for Maltese politics?

The PN has lost by record margins in practically every election since then, and taking the 2009 MEP elections as the start of the nation’s shift to Labour, its dominance of Maltese politics is now close to 15 years.

It isn’t clear, however, if the reduction in popular support for Labour suggests its fortune could start to change or whether it is the case that the standard electoral cycle is now a thing of the past.

Much will depend on how the PN, as well as Malta’s third parties and independent candidates, make use the next five years.

One of the election’s few silver linings for the PN is that the party has a promising crop of young candidates who will be much better positioned to attract voters who are disgruntled with the government but who still hold grudges against the PN.

One also shouldn’t dismiss the prospect of a game-changing third party or movement emerging and starting to challenge the PN.

With so many people willing to abandon the two major parties, either by voting for independent and third-party candidates, or not voting at all, one also can’t help but wonder what the result would have been had ADPD been better organised and remotely able to captivate the nation’s imagination, like it did in 2013.

In a Facebook post on Tuesday, podcast host Jon Mallia pointed out that approximately 69,000 people decided not to vote for either Labour or the PN, more than enough votes to sustain a new party.

It is perhaps clearer than ever that an increasing number of people do not feel represented, the question is who will step in over the next five years to give them a voice.

Who do you think the biggest winner was in the latest general election?