Malta’s rate of infection and transmission, known as the R0 factor, for the COVID-19 coronavirus stands at 1.5, well below the global average, Superintendent for Public Health Charmaine Gauci has confirmed.

This means that every person who contracts COVID-19 in Malta spreads the disease to about 1.5 people on average.

The seasonal flu, for example, has an average R0 of 1. Globally the R0 factor of COVID-19 stands at roughly 2.2.

Malta looked at its own figures along with statistics of other nations with similar geographical and demographical make-up to ascertain the rate.

The news could give some indication when drastic but necessary COVID-19 preventative measures could be lifted.

Gauci has previously told Lovin Malta that the country would need to drop its R0 factor to below 1 for the nation to begin returning to normality. Prime Minister Robert Abela has suggested this could be the case in a matter of weeks if people maintain a sense of discipline.

However, Gauci was clear that the R0 factor is not a fixed figure and will rise if preventative measures, like social distancing, are not followed.

By declaring a public health emergency, the government has shut down large swathes of industries, all flights, and imposed a three-person limit for groups in public, among a long list of other measures. Sections of the public still continue to ignore Gauci’s pleas to avoid public spaces.

Malta now has 393 cases of COVID-19 after nine more patients were confirmed this morning. Despite today’s low figure, health authorities aren’t focusing on daily numbers but on the overall trend, which has so far been climbing upwards.

Both Gauci and Health Minister Chris Fearne have both said Malta is yet to reach the top of the curve, which studies have predicted could be around two weeks away.