What happened in previous elections?

The fifth district has voted in a Labour majority in each of the last four general elections.

In 2017, over 65% of eligible voters voted red, but the PN was still able to steal two of the five available seats, regaining one from 2013, albeit with an extremely slim 186 vote majority. It was a small victory in what was a dismal electoral performance by Malta’s Opposition.

Two leaders battle will determine the race for the 5th District 

While some heavy hitters are competing in the district, attention will be focused on who comes out on top in the district battle beyond the national result.

Abela will undoubtedly be eyeing the district as one he could exploit to inflict further damage on Grech’s ailing PN and move out of his predecessor Joseph Muscat’s shadow.

Muscat garnered a massive 12,886 first-count votes in 2017 while competing in the same fifth district. Beating that and Grech in the process would send a real signal of intent for Abela beyond 2022. 

However, failure to do so could lead to Abela facing some serious questions from internal rivals and the many who still remain fiercely loyal to Muscat, particularly if Grech manages to close the gap by a significant margin.

Still, Abela, who is not running on his hometown district of Qormi in favour of the fifth, is risking alienating crucial Cabinet members contesting on the district.

Four sitting Cabinet members, Miriam Dalli, Owen Bonnici, Julia Farrugia Portelli, and Stefan Zrinzo Azzopardi, will be vying for a spot and Abela’s presence will undoubtedly ruffle some feathers.

Some, like Dalli, a popular candidate who would want a large number of first count votes, could present a major challenge to Abela, particularly from a person touted as a future PL leader.

Abela, of course, could open the door up to a casual election, if he chooses to keep his 2nd District seat. But it looks like at least one Cabinet member might miss out on getting elected. 

Grech will be hoping to set a real mark in the traditional Labour heartland. However, his ultimate goal must be securing the second seat and not incurring any major losses beyond the general election.

His first count votes, which will likely reach the threshold after the first round of voting, will then most likely be transferred to other PN candidates on the district, giving them a real push to grab the second seat.

Still, it also presents a massive risk for Grech, who would face serious questions if he was humiliated by Abela, even if the PN closes the gap by some margin.

Toni Bezzina looks most likely to win the second seat. However, the PN is struggling from a lack of strong candidates o the district – and it remains to be seen whether or not Grech will open up a causal election by selecting his 11th District seat. 

Etiher one of Stefan Caruana, Francine Farrugia, Owen Sciberras and Stanely Zammit could be the ones to capitalise.

What are the key district issues likely to influence the vote?

Agricultural and rural issues do typically influence votes in the locality. There are issues like overdevelopment and rampant construction. However, migration is a big concern for the area, with the murder of Lassana Cisse fresh in memory. 

Still, this time around, the party leaders and their work on a national scale are going to be playing a major role.

Both men know that contesting on the district is a quickfire way to sure up first-count votes, with supporters more than eager to back their leader and party.

Voters will be looking at what the men will offer to the country in general and will not pay as much attention to their policies for the districts itself. 

Who is likely to come out on top this time around?

The Labour Party will most likely keep ahold of its majority, but the PN looks odds-on to steal a second seat for a second time around. Expect Grech and Abela to eat most of the first count votes and to get elected immediately on the first round.

The rest of the field will need to battle it out for preference votes – and expect candidates to be currying favour with their respective leaders and canvassers to get the backing on 26th March. 

Will the PN win two seats?