Exclusive: Undecided Voters Shrink With Election On The Horizon
Undecided voters are shrinking fast, with the latest survey by pollster Vincent Marmarà showing that Maltese voters are beginning to align themselves more firmly with their natural parties – a telltale sign that an election could be just around the corner.
In February, more than one in five voters, 22%, told Marmarà they didn’t know who they would back if a general election were held tomorrow. Marmarà’s latest survey, run this week, has seen that figure drop to 15.9%.
It’s a familiar pattern in Maltese politics: the closer an election looms, the less people are willing to hedge. Instead of staying on the fence, voters drift back into the comfort of their traditional camps.
The timing is noteworthy. Political insiders are increasingly whispering that Prime Minister Robert Abela may call an election as early as the first quarter of 2026, nearly a year ahead of schedule. On the ground, the signs are already there – potential candidates stepping up their activity, campaign-style events multiplying, and party machines slowly turning their gears.
The survey offers positives for both Labour and the Nationalists. Labour has consolidated after a shaky start to 2025, with more than 80% of its 2022 voters saying they would back the party again, compared with just 72% in February. The number of Labour voters saying they would abstain has also halved in the same period. Crucially, the undecided share among Labour voters has fallen from 12.1% in February to 10% in October, another clear sign that the party is reabsorbing its drifting base.
The PN, meanwhile, has also steadied itself. Back in February, nearly 12% of Nationalist voters from 2022 said they were unsure whether they would support the party again. By October, that figure had dropped to 9.8%, while overall retention of PN voters has climbed from around 80% to 87%. The party still faces challenges with abstention, but its core support appears firmer now than it did earlier this year.
That shift doesn’t necessarily mean the battle is decided. It simply means that the “phantom bloc” of undecideds that tends to dominate surveys in the middle of the legislature is now shrinking, leaving a clearer picture of the two main parties facing off with their bases more intact. What happens next depends less on voters changing sides, and more on how effectively each party can mobilise the supporters it already has.
Do you know who you’re voting for in the next election?
READ NEXT: Exclusive: Labour Bounces Back With 25,000-Vote Lead, New Marmarà Survey Shows
