Labour Faces Decline As PN Gains Ground Recent MaltaToday Survey Reveals
According to a recent MaltaToday survey, the political tide is shifting in Malta. The Nationalist Party (PN) has secured a relative majority over the Labour Party (PL), with a lead of 5,000 votes, marking a significant turn of events since the 2022 general election.
The MaltaToday survey unveiled a tangible air of disillusionment settling among the Labour voters. With a 2-point lead, the Nationalist Party stands at 45.8%, while the Labour Party lags at 43.8%. A stark contrast to the 39,474-vote majority that the PL boasted in the previous election.
Labour’s struggle to retain its 2022 voters is apparent, with 29% declaring their intention to abstain from voting. The PN, in comparison, exhibits stronger voter retention, holding onto 77% of its 2022 electorate. This shift is reflected in the 10.5% of committed voters now leaning towards third parties.
Prime Minister Robert Abela maintains a trust rating of 39.2%, outpacing Bernard Grech’s 20%. However, the rising tide of political agnostics, comprising 40.9% of the survey participants, signals a broader disenchantment with the nation’s political leadership.
The survey, conducted between 25 September and 4 October 2023, employed a stratified random sampling approach based on region, gender, and age. With a ±3.8% margin of error at a 95% confidence interval, the findings are indicative of the public’s current political inclination, albeit within the context of a new methodology.
PL’s diminishing popularity is partly attributed to a pronounced inclination towards abstention, particularly within its strongholds. The Southern Harbour and South-Eastern regions, traditional Labour bastions, exhibit a noticeable rise in potential non-voters, indicating a waning loyalty.
In contrast, the PN has recaptured its footing in competitive and traditionally Nationalist-leaning regions. The party leads in four of the six regions, with Labour maintaining its grip only in the South-Eastern and Southern Harbour areas.
Labour retains its appeal among women, albeit marginally, while the PN is more favoured by men. The PL also maintains its lead among secondary and post-secondary educated voters, while the PN holds the favour of those with a tertiary education.
A closer examination reveals a trust deficit for both Abela and Grech. The Prime Minister, despite his lead, faces distrust from 27% of Labour’s 2022 voters. Grech’s situation is more precarious, with 50% of PN’s 2022 electorate expressing a lack of trust in his leadership.
As Malta navigates this evolving political landscape, the growing number of non-voters and those leaning towards third parties underscores a pivotal moment of reflection for the nation’s primary political entities. The data encapsulates a narrative of shifting allegiances, raising pivotal questions about the future trajectory of Maltese politics and the implications for forthcoming general elections.
The statistics in this article are credited to a MaltaToday survey.
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