Labour Forecast To Win Election By 26,000 Votes And Independents Supported By 8% Of Electorate
PL is set to soar to victory in the upcoming MEP and local council elections with a 26,000-vote lead over PN, a new survey has found.
The findings of the latest political survey – conducted by IDEA Group’s Malta Survey – are almost identical to those found in a recent study by leading statistician Vincent Marmara.
Despite regular warnings of political apathy, the survey forecasts an extremely high turnout of just under 90%, with PL winning 40.9% of the vote and PN winning 33%.
Norman Lowell’s Imperium Europa is the most popular third party, at 4.9% of the vote, ahead of ADPD at 1.5% and others (ie. ABBA and Volt Malta) at 0.9%. However, independent candidates combined command a healthy 8.2% of the vote.
Meanwhile, 10.7% of the electorate have said they don’t intend to vote at all.
The survey also found that the PL has maintained 77.2% of its 2022 voters while PN haas maintained 81.1% of them, up from 74.2% and 79.5% respectively from IDEA Group’s survey last April.
8.5% of PL voters and 3.4% of PN voters currently intend to stay at home on 8th June.
Cross-party switching is minimal, with only 5.6% of PL voters intending to vote for PN and 4.9% of PN voters intending to vote for PL.
The survey indicates that both PL and PN will elect three MEPs each, which would see Malta return to a state of political parity at the European Parliament, after PL enjoyed a 4-2 majority over the past five years.
The survey was carried out online between 14th and 20th May, with stratified sampling to mirror the demographic composition of the electorate, including age, gender, geographic location and education.
With a sample size of 1,639, the findings have a margin of error of 2.5%.
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