The Labour Party (PL) continues to trounce its opponents ahead of the upcoming European Parliament (MEP) elections, garnering 55.2% of the vote according to surveys in Torca and 44.2% of the vote according to Malta Today.
The PL and PN are currently evenly split in the European Parliament with three seats each, however, with voters heading to the polls on 25th May, surveys show that the PL will most likely gain a majority of seats this time around
Despite the difference between the two surveys, both papers registered a similar percentage point gap between the two main parties. Torca showed a difference of 16.2% points while MT’s survey showed a difference of 15.2% points.
Interestingly enough, MT registered a significant drop in the number of voters who either do not know how they will vote or intend not to. Malta is known for having very high turnout, despite the 2017 general election having registered the lowest turnout in around 50 years at a whopping 92% of the electorate.
According to the survey, 12.2% are still unsure about who they will be voting for – down 4.9 percentage points from their April survey. Similarly, 9.8% say they will not be voting, down 4 percentage points from their April survey.
Gap of 40,000 – 50,000 between the two main parties
Praised for its methodology in closely predicting the 2017 general election, Torca uses a scientific method called the Multiple Imputation Technique in order to take out the ‘don’t knows’ and ‘will not votes’ from the equation and provide a “clearer picture” of the final results.
It predicts that the PL will have gained 5 percentage points over the PN since the 2017 general elections, translating into between 40,000 and 50,000 votes for the PL in the upcoming elections.
MT predicts there will be a vote margin between the two major parties of around 45,000 votes – an increase from the roughly 5,000 votes from the 2017 general election.
According to trust barometers both papers included in their respective surveys, Prime Minister Joseph Muscat received a trust score of 51.7%, leaving Opposition Leader Adrian Delia with a trust score of 21.2%, according to MT. It also found a proportion of 22.7% said they trust neither leader. Torca found that 59.5% trust Muscat the most, 37% trust Delia the most while 3.5% chose ‘others’.
Who were the respondents?
MT’s survey was carried out between 25 April and 3 May. They had 602 respondents and have a confidence interval of 95%.
Torca also had 600 respondents with a confidence interval of 95%. Both papers stratified the results in order to be representative of the voting population based on age, gender and locality.