The population increase will largely be driven by foreigners, whose numbers, 8,557 in 2022, are expected to nearly double to 17,842 by 2042. Meanwhile, the Maltese population is projected to rise by just 3,000 people, reaching 34,608 by 2052.

The study examined two scenarios: a business-as-usual (BAU) approach and one where the Gozo Regional Development Strategy is implemented. Housing stock is expected to rise under both scenarios, from 25,270 in 2022 to 31,962 in 2042, and slightly higher under the strategy at 33,051 by 2052.

Construction and demolition waste is set to climb from 1,066 cubic metres in 2022 to 2,843 cubic metres by 2052, with marginally higher amounts if the strategy is applied.

Despite some environmental challenges, analysts concluded that well-being for Gozitan residents will increase under both scenarios. Using an index measuring environmental, economic, and social impacts, they projected a 28 percentage point increase under BAU by 2052, and a 41 percentage point increase if the strategy is implemented.

Improvements in air quality, driven by more electric vehicles and renewable energy, were noted, though water quality is predicted to fall by 28 percentage points by 2050 in both scenarios. The largest gains are expected in economic well-being, with GDP per capita driving an 84 percentage point increase under BAU, and 101 points if the strategy is followed.

This study suggests that while Gozo faces challenges linked to rapid growth and infrastructure pressures, residents could still enjoy a higher standard of living in the decades to come.

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