Malta would need to drop its rate of infection, known as the R0 factor, to below 1 before restrictive COVID-19 measures in the country can be lifted, Superintendent for Public Health Charmaine Gauci has revealed.

Gauci has been evasive in the past on the current R0 in Malta. However, on a global scale, COVID-19 has an R0 of roughly 2 to 2.5.

This means that each new person who contracts COVID-19 spreads the disease to about 2.2 people on average. The seasonal flu, for example, has an average R0 of 1.

R0 is a crucial metric to understand how a virus spreads. It is not a fixed figure and will change if preventive measures yield positive results.

“We are working according to evidence-based models. The R Factor would need to drop below one. It’s still too early for that and will only happen when cases are really going down and the rate of local transmission drops,” she said.

The government has introduced drastic but necessary measures. It has shut down large swathes of industries, all flights, and imposed a three-person limit for groups in public, among a long list of other measures.

However, sections of the public still continue to ignore Gauci’s pleas to avoid public spaces. Gauci reiterated that going to the beach in twos, that is anyway packed with other couples, is not social distancing.

Malta now has 384 cases of COVID-19 after six more were confirmed this morning. Despite today’s low figure, health authorities aren’t focusing on daily numbers but on the overall trend, which has so far been climbing upwards.

Both Gauci and Health Minister Chris Fearne have both said Malta is yet to reach the top of the curve, which is predicted to be around two weeks away.