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New Prediction Sees Six Daily COVID-19 Deaths In Malta – But Is It Reliable?

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The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is predicting that daily COVID-19 deaths in Malta will rise to six by mid-December – however, it had previously overestimated the virus’ impact on the islands.

Several predictions have been published since the outbreak of the pandemic, however, the IHME study has been far more influential than most, even being cited in White House briefings.

Given that Malta retains the current precautionary measures, the IHME is predicting that the country’s death toll will gradually decrease after reaching a peak in mid-December.

The IHME, an affiliate institute of the World Health Organisation (WHO), had collaborated with the aforementioned organisation back in 2018 to improve the accuracy, timeliness, and policy-relevance of health data.

Having said that, the institute had a couple of minor misfires in the past when projecting Malta’s COVID-19 situation.

Back in April, the IHME predicted that Malta will register 19 COVID-19 related deaths by 4th August, and later revised that number down to 13.

By 4th August Malta had registered a total of nine virus-related deaths.

IHME's death predictions for Malta on 7th April

IHME's death predictions for Malta on 7th April

IHME's death predictions for Malta on 3rd August

IHME's death predictions for Malta on 3rd August

The Washington Post even described it IHME’s projections as “America’s most influential coronavirus model”.

The IHME had also predicted that on 22nd April, Malta would require 33 hospital beds, eight intensive care beds, and seven ventilators – the real figures, however, were rather different.

On 22nd April, Malta’s hospitalisation records showed that two people were in intensive care, one was using a ventilator, and 35 hospital beds were being used for COVID-19 patients.

As of yet, Malta’s total number of active cases stands at 2,097. Earlier this week, Malta also hit the grime milestone of 101 virus-related deaths.

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