If An Election Were Held Tomorrow, Labour Could Win By 70,000 Votes
If an election were to be held tomorrow, Prime Minister Joseph Muscat would nab a third historic landslide which in terms of vote difference could amount to his two record victories of 2013 and 2017 put together, according to the results of a survey by Maltatoday.
Voting intentions currently show an almost 25% gap between the two major parties (PL: 46%, PN: 22%) which could translate to a vote difference of 70,000 votes. The last two elections were won by approximately 36,000 votes each.
The data shows that the internal criticism faced by Nationalist leader Adrian Delia has led to the best-ever trust rating for Muscat and the worst-ever performance registered by a PN leader in a Maltatoday poll.
Muscat enjoys a record trust rating of 51% compared to Delia’s 22%. That’s a difference of 29%.
A quick comparison with previous Maltatoday polls shows that this is Muscat’s highest trust rating since October 2013 when he scored 47.4%. Former PN leader Simon Busuttil’s worst trust rating was 26.3% back in June 2015.
Delia only enjoys only a 54% trust rating among PN voters compared to Muscat’s 92% among Labour Party voters.
Joseph Muscat’s best trust rating
Simon Busuttil’s worst trust rating
The last trust rating before the June 2017 election showed Muscat with 43.4% compared to Busuttil’s 37.6%.
Another interesting comparison looks at Muscat’s trust rating during his time in Opposition. Immediately after being elected in 2008, Muscat’s trust rating smashed his then rival’s Lawrence Gonzi with 43.7% compared to Gonzi’s 30.8%. As the years rolled on, Gonzi’s ratings dropped to a low of 23.8% (which is still higher than Delia’s today), and Muscat’s swelled to 44%.
No matter how you look at the data, the uphill struggle faced by Delia has never been more real.
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