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If An Election Were Held Tomorrow, Labour Could Win By 70,000 Votes

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If an election were to be held tomorrow, Prime Minister Joseph Muscat would nab a third historic landslide which in terms of vote difference could amount to his two record victories of 2013 and 2017 put together, according to the results of a survey by Maltatoday

Voting intentions currently show an almost 25% gap between the two major parties (PL: 46%, PN: 22%) which could translate to a vote difference of 70,000 votes. The last two elections were won by approximately 36,000 votes each. 

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The data shows that the internal criticism faced by Nationalist leader Adrian Delia has led to the best-ever trust rating for Muscat and the worst-ever performance registered by a PN leader in a Maltatoday poll.

Muscat enjoys a record trust rating of 51% compared to Delia’s 22%. That’s a difference of 29%. 

A quick comparison with previous Maltatoday polls shows that this is Muscat’s highest trust rating since October 2013 when he scored 47.4%. Former PN leader Simon Busuttil’s worst trust rating was 26.3% back in June 2015. 

Delia only enjoys only a 54% trust rating among PN voters compared to Muscat’s 92% among Labour Party voters.

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Joseph Muscat’s best trust rating

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Simon Busuttil’s worst trust rating

The last trust rating before the June 2017 election showed Muscat with 43.4% compared to Busuttil’s 37.6%.

Another interesting comparison looks at Muscat’s trust rating during his time in Opposition. Immediately after being elected in 2008, Muscat’s trust rating smashed his then rival’s Lawrence Gonzi with 43.7% compared to Gonzi’s 30.8%. As the years rolled on, Gonzi’s ratings dropped to a low of 23.8% (which is still higher than Delia’s today), and Muscat’s swelled to 44%. 

No matter how you look at the data, the uphill struggle faced by Delia has never been more real. 

Tag a politics junkie

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