The gap between the major parties has increased by 7.3% since the last general election, according to a survey conducted by Vincent Marmara for It-Torċa.
According to the survey, 58.1% of people intend to vote for PL, an increase of 3.1% when compared to the election, while only 39.1% plan to vote for PN, a decrease of 4.6%.
This puts the difference between the two major parties at 19%, which means a 60,000 voter gap.
Such a result would also put the PL closer to securing two-thirds of Parliament, a supermajority that would allow it to change the constitution at will without the support of the opposition.
The survey found that the major reason for this gap is the uncertainty among people who voted for the PN two years ago, with several voters stating they don’t know who they intend to vote for or insisting they won’t vote at all.
Trust in political leaders
The uncertainty within the PN contrasted with the ability of the PL to consolidate its voter base is further shown in the level of trust both political leaders enjoy among their respective bases.
While Prime Minister Joseph Muscat enjoys the trust of 88.2% of people who voted PL two years ago, only 57.6% of people who voted PN said they trust Opposition leader Adrian Delia.
Meanwhile, 8.5% refused to comment or said they are undecided on which leader they trust more.
The survey indicates that Delia has so far failed to make any inroads, a consistent trend in trust ratings since his election as PN leader in 2017.
Labour close to a supermajority
The Maltese electoral system dictates that if two parties get elected to Parliament, one party must gain 66% of the national vote to win a supermajority.
While the Labour Party has repeatedly played down suggestions that it is close to reaching that percentage, this survey will certainly not help allay concerns that Malta is moving towards a one-party state.