The Nationalist Party (PN) is currently leading ahead of the Labour Party (PL) in a recent election survey conducted by MaltaSurvey and The Malta Independent.
As it stands, the opposition would receive 0.4% more votes than the PL if an election were to be held tomorrow. This translates to 1,500 votes.
While the number is marginal, it is akin to the difference with which PN won its last election in 2008.
Conversely, the survey shows that there is more public trust in Prime Minister Robert Abela than opposition leader Bernard Grech.
The survey involved a sample size of 1,600 respondents and therefore puts it at 2.5% margin of error at a 95% confidence level. The sample was gathered between 1st and 8th September.
The data also shows that each party lost voters from the last election with one-third of PL voters and one-fifth of PN voters indicating that they would not vote for the respective parties next time around.
Meanwhile, the survey shows that the number of people who will not vote is more-or-less the same as the number of voters who did not participate in the 2022 election; one-in-seven voters. Another 4.4% of respondents are undecided.
Moreover, this all means that if an election were to be held tomorrow, PN would receive 35.3% of votes, PL would receive 34.9% of votes, 15.8% of citizens would not vote, 4.9% would vote for ADPD, another 4.9% would vote for other small parties and independent candidates, and 4.4% remain undecided. When looking at these numbers, the 2.5% margin of error must be considered.
When it comes to trust in leaders, 36% respondents placed their confidence in Abela, 27.1% in Grech, 29.1% said none, and 7.8% in Sandra Gauci.
Meanwhile, the survey found that PN would lead in Gozo if an election were to be held tomorrow. The survey shows that 39.3% would vote PN, while 28.2% would vote PL; 14.5% said they would not vote.
While the next general election is supposed to be held in four years’ time, this is a good indication of the current public stance on political parties in Malta and a very big change to the usual election surveys that generally see PL in the lead.
Do you think that this survey is an accurate representation of citizens voting opinions?