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Meanwhile, MaltaToday projected that PL is leading by only 8,000 votes but that Abela’s trust rating is 12.5 percentage points higher than that of Borg.

Both surveys show that swings from PL to PN and vice versa are minimal at best. Marmarà’s survey projected a 2.3% swing from PL to PN and a 1.3% swing to smaller parties, as well as a 2.5% swing from PN to smaller parties.

In fact, Borg’s gains are largely down to the fact that he has consolidated support among PN voters.

MaltaToday projected a 7.8% swing from PL to PN and a 1.2% swing to smaller parties, as well as a 5.6% swing from PN to PL and 3.1% to smaller parties.

Schiavone said that while the two surveys had different results, both show that the PL still enjoys a “comfortable and strong majority while Abela is much more trusted than Borg.

“Trust ratings of leaders are very important in Maltese elections because, since 1987, our elections have become presidential,” he said.

“In 2008, the PL was ahead of the PN but Lawrence Gonzi had a higher trust rating than Alfred Sant. Therefore, the PN built its campaign on the concept of ‘GonziPN’ and managed to win based on their leader’s trust rating.”

While not criticising either methodology, Sciavone said that history has shown Marmarà’s surveys tend to be closer to the final result.

He concluded that the results are “very positive” for the PL and that the governing party’s greatest problem now could be its own voters feeling complacent enough to stay at home.

Cover photo: ONE TV