‘PN Not Making Inroads Among PL Voters’: Hermann Schiavone Analyses Surveys

Electoral expert and former PN MP Hermann Schiavone said that the two political surveys that were published this weekend both show that the PN has yet to make inroads among PL voters.
“If the PN is to win the election, it needs serious shifts from the PL but these aren’t registering so far,” Schiavone said on ONE TV’s Paperscan.
“When Joseph Muscat was elected PL leader in 2009, the shifts were enormous and remained consistent throughout.”
A survey by Prof. Vincent Marmarà, published in full on Lovin Malta, projected that the Labour Party is ahead by around 25,000 votes.
Prime Minister Robert Abela’s public trust rating is 8.1 percentage points ahead of Opposition Leader Alex Borg, the lowest gap (from similar surveys) since 2008.
Meanwhile, MaltaToday projected that PL is leading by only 8,000 votes but that Abela’s trust rating is 12.5 percentage points higher than that of Borg.
Both surveys show that swings from PL to PN and vice versa are minimal at best. Marmarà’s survey projected a 2.3% swing from PL to PN and a 1.3% swing to smaller parties, as well as a 2.5% swing from PN to smaller parties.
In fact, Borg’s gains are largely down to the fact that he has consolidated support among PN voters.
MaltaToday projected a 7.8% swing from PL to PN and a 1.2% swing to smaller parties, as well as a 5.6% swing from PN to PL and 3.1% to smaller parties.
Schiavone said that while the two surveys had different results, both show that the PL still enjoys a “comfortable and strong majority while Abela is much more trusted than Borg.
“Trust ratings of leaders are very important in Maltese elections because, since 1987, our elections have become presidential,” he said.
“In 2008, the PL was ahead of the PN but Lawrence Gonzi had a higher trust rating than Alfred Sant. Therefore, the PN built its campaign on the concept of ‘GonziPN’ and managed to win based on their leader’s trust rating.”
While not criticising either methodology, Sciavone said that history has shown Marmarà’s surveys tend to be closer to the final result.
He concluded that the results are “very positive” for the PL and that the governing party’s greatest problem now could be its own voters feeling complacent enough to stay at home.
Cover photo: ONE TV