Scientists Warn Of Unprecedented Global Warming Acceleration In New Climate Science Update
In a comprehensive climate science update, 50 top scientists issued a dire warning on Thursday, highlighting record-high greenhouse gas emissions and diminishing air pollution as the key drivers of an unparalleled acceleration in global warming.
The scientists presented their findings in a peer-reviewed study aimed at policymakers, revealing that from 2013 to 2022, human-induced warming has been increasing at an unprecedented rate of over 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade.
During the same period, average annual emissions reached an all-time high of 54 billion tonnes of CO2 or its equivalent in other gases, equating to approximately 1,700 tonnes every second. This staggering statistic underscores the urgent need for action to curb emissions.
The alarming data is set to confront world leaders at the critical COP28 climate summit scheduled to take place later this year in Dubai. At the summit, the UN’s Global Stocktake will assess the progress made towards achieving the temperature goals outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Unfortunately, the findings presented in the study appear to dash hopes of limiting global warming to the more ambitious target of 1.5 degrees Celsius set by the Paris treaty. The scientists warn that even though we have not yet reached 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, the carbon budget, which represents the amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted without surpassing that limit, is likely to be exhausted within a few years.
Lead author Piers Forster, a physics professor at the University of Leeds, explained that the carbon budget has been cut in half since the last benchmark report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2021. Forster and many of his colleagues were core contributors to the IPCC report.
To have a 50% chance of staying below the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold, emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and other warming agents must not exceed 250 billion tonnes.
Increasing the odds to two-thirds or four-fifths would require reducing the carbon allowance to 150 billion tonnes and 100 billion tonnes, respectively. At the current rate of emissions, these reduced allowances would only provide a two- or three-year window to act.
The IPCC has calculated that in order to maintain the temperature targets set in the Paris Agreement, carbon dioxide pollution must be reduced by at least 40% by 2030 and completely eliminated by the middle of the century.
Ironically, the study reveals that one of the significant success stories in the fight against climate change in the past decade has inadvertently hastened global warming. The gradual reduction in coal usage for power generation, which is more carbon-intensive than oil or gas, has contributed to a slowdown in carbon emissions.
However, this decline has also led to a reduction in air pollution, which acts as a shield against the Sun’s rays. As a result, with cleaner air, more heat is reaching the Earth’s surface, exacerbating the warming trend.
The study, published in the peer-reviewed journal Earth System Science Data, is the first in a series of periodic assessments that aim to bridge the gap between IPCC reports. The release of these regular updates is critical in keeping the urgency of addressing the climate crisis at the forefront of the international community’s agenda.
“An annual update of key indicators of global change is critical in helping the international community and countries to keep the urgency of addressing the climate change crisis at the top of the agenda,” said co-author and scientist Maisa Rojas Corradi, who is also the environment minister of Chile.
Despite evidence of a slowdown in greenhouse gas increases, Masson-Delmotte stressed that the pace and scale of climate action are still insufficient to limit the escalating risks associated with climate change.
The study also highlighted a startling rise in temperature increases over land areas since 2000, excluding oceans.
Over the past decade, land average annual maximum temperatures have warmed by more than half a degree Celsius compared to the first decade of the millennium. This intensifying trend in heat poses a significant threat to life across large regions of South and Southeast Asia, as well as areas straddling the equator in Africa and Latin America, as recent research has shown.
The findings presented by these scientists underscore the urgent need for ambitious and immediate action to mitigate climate change.
Hundreds of fires are burning in Canada, from the western provinces to Nova Scotia and Quebec in the east, where there are more than 150 active fires in a particularly fierce start to the summer season.
These fires are threatening the air quality in the US where people in New York were warned to stay inside and the air turned orange-brown.
Without swift and decisive measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and address global warming, the world could face increasingly severe consequences in the coming decades.
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