Watch: Maltese Economist Warns Of Mass African Migration Due To War-Induced Food Crisis
As the Russia-Ukraine war rages on, a leading Maltese economist has warned that the conflict could trigger further mass migration from Africa to Europe as a result of major food shortages.
During a recent TVM interview, Clint Flores noted that besides helping their own citizens deal with inflation, EU member states must also help sub-Saharan African countries to prevent food shortages from spiralling into civil unrest and mass migration to Europe.
“If they don’t have enough food and cannot cope with the cost of living, there could be mass migration from south to north, from east to west and even from the Sahel to Libya and upwards to the Mediterranean.”
“Many of these countries were colonies of France and Britain and some are still dependent on their old coloniser for protection. Countries like France are scared they must keep on financing them, particularly the Sahel countries, because there could be a risk to European security if conflicts there remain unsolved.”
Moreover, he told Lovin Malta that the situation could be further aggravated by climate change in Africa.
“The natural biological instinct is to move towards the areas that are prosperous for food… and that’s only possible in affluent areas.”
Russia and Ukraine are among the world’s top wheat exporters and several African countries, as well as countries in the Caucuses, are extremely reliant on them.
Data by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) shows that Eritrea relies on Russia and Ukraine for 100% of its wheat imports, while Somalia relies on them for over 90% of its wheat, Egypt for over 70% and Libya for over 60%.
Sub-Saharan countries like Congo and Namibia (over 60%) and Sahel nations like Mauritania, Senegal and Cameroon (over 50%) are also extremely reliant on these war-torn nations.
The EU is aware of this problem and recently allocated €600 million in development funds to avoid a food crisis in African, Caribbean and Pacific countries.
European Parliament President Roberta Metsola also flagged the risk of mass migration when addressing EU member state heads of government recently.
“We are facing the East but we cannot underestimate the impact this war will produce on our southern neighbourhood too,” she said.
“We need to be ready to help and we cannot be caught unaware when migration flows pick up again. I am worried that we will soon be facing a situation that is entirely predictable and yet one that will once again find us entirely unprepared. There are options on the table that could help us in this reality of omni-crisis, with vulnerable people used as pawns in geo-political games.”
Meanwhile, Spain has urged NATO to play a bigger role in North Africa and the Sahel following a spike of violence in Mali.
Flores told Lovin Malta that the war could lead to permanent changes in the world order due to shifting economic patterns.
“Even if [Russian President] Vladimir Putin goes, the economic patterns have been changed – and the EU will certainly move towards a more security and defence approach, with a strategic autonomy concept,” he said.
A migrant being rescued from Maltese waters in August 2020
“However, populism will be on the rise and the social and economic tensions will be felt; unless the EU steps in to assist middle to low-income earners I see that they are digging a hole that it would take them a long time to get out of, if they actually do.”
He urged the EU to update its financial frameworks and channel funds to cushion the impact of inflation, warning that Putin could bide his time for a protracted war and betting that its economic repercussions would end up dividing Europe.
“The economic consequences of sanctions are too big to bear in the short run and unless the EU steps in, I see no light at the end of the tunnel,” he said.
“It doesn’t make sense to send billions of lethal weapons – outside the EU budget – but at the same time not stepping in to help European families.”
Cover photo: Left: Clint Flores, Right: Migrants rescued in Maltese waters in August 2020
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