Watch: Vince Marmara Breaks Down Why Surveys Got Election Result So Badly Wrong
Leading statistician Vincent Marmara has published a video to explain why several surveys failed to predict that the election gap between PL and PN would shrink so drastically.
Marmara, whose final survey forecasted a 27,000-vote victory for PL, said he applied the same scientific model that correctly predicted vote gaps in previous Maltese elections but that the rate of undecided voters was particularly high this time round.
“While the number of undecided voters usually starts declining over the course of a campaign, it remained high this time. At the end of a campaign, it’s usually 3-4%, but this time it was 15-18%.”
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“It seems that many undecided voters who had voted for PN in 2022 returned to the party, but some undecided PL voters didn’t vote at all and a large part voted for independent candidates. One can see that independents increased their vote substantially this election.”
Marmara said his work was made trickier due to the fact that the Vitals inquiry was concluded so soon before the election.
“You usually need a few days or weeks to pass to assess the impact of certain political events but it wasn’t possible this time around.”
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