Four Scenarios, One Choice: Malta’s Climate Future
What will Malta look like in 2055?
That’s the question the Malta Chamber of Commerce and EY set out to answer in Four Climate Futures — a bold new project that imagines how our islands could change depending on the actions we take today.
Using local data, global modelling, and scenario planning, the study presents four stark futures for Malta. Each one reflects a different level of climate action — and its consequences.
Here’s what they look like:
Business As Usual — +3°C by 2100
Hotter summers, up to 46°C. Mass migration. Food and water shortages. Strained healthcare. Rising seas and failing infrastructure leave Malta exposed and unstable.
Collapse — +4°C by 2100
A world beyond repair. Global systems break down. Malta is isolated. Sanitation crumbles, diseases surge, violence spreads. Even our culture and identity start to vanish.
Constrain — +2°C by 2100
We avoid disaster — but barely. Authoritarian controls rise. Freedoms shrink. Resources are rationed. Tourism fades. Malta becomes a fortress state focused solely on survival.
Transform — +1.5°C by 2100
The sustainable path. Powered by renewables. Cities cooled by trees. Community farming and water security. A resilient economy, clean mobility, and protected nature.
This isn’t fiction. It’s a choice.
77% of Maltese already say climate adaptation must be a national priority.
The clock is ticking — just 4 years left to stay under 1.5°C.
The future isn’t set. But it is ours to shape.