Both men know that contesting on the district is a quickfire way to sure up first-count votes, with supporters more than eager to back their leader and party.

Abela will undoubtedly be eyeing the district as one he could exploit to inflict further damage on Grech’s ailing PN and move out of his predecessor, Joseph Muscat’s shadow.

Muscat garnered a massive 12,886 first-count votes in 2017 while competing on the same fifth district. Beating that, and Grech in the process, would send a real signal of intent for Abela beyond 2022. With less than 200 votes, Abela is sniffing an opportunity for victory.

Abela, who is not running on his hometown district of Qormi in favour of the fifth, is risking big but the strategic benefits of landing a double blow by stealing back the seat and inflicting damage on Grech may outweigh the safer option.

However, failure to do so could lead to Abela facing some serious questions from internal rivals and the many who still remain fiercely loyal to Muscat, particularly if Grech manages to close the gap by a significant margin.

Remember, Abela is yet to prove his electoral credentials to a parliamentary group that was moulded under Muscat. Signs of weakness might see many question the new leader and whether he really is the man to take the party into 2027.

Abela, meanwhile, threatens to alienate crucial Cabinet members contesting on the district.

Four sitting Cabinet members, Miriam Dalli, Owen Bonnici, Julia Farrugia Portelli, and Stefan Zrinzo Azzopardi, will be vying for a spot and Abela’s presence will undoubtedly ruffle some feathers.

Some, like Dalli, a popular candidate who would want a large number of first count votes, could present a major challenge to Abela, particularly from a person touted as a future PL leader.

Grech, who is from Birżebbuġa and will be looking to shore up support in the south, will be hoping to set a real mark in the traditional Labour heartland. However, his ultimate goal must be securing the second seat and not incurring any major losses beyond the general election.

His first count votes, which will likely reach the threshold after the first round of voting, will then most will likely be transferred to other PN candidates in the district, giving them a real push to grab the second seat.

Abela, Grech, and the entire nation know that the Labour Party will win in 2022, save for any one-in-a-million implosions. However, their respective performances will set the tone for what could be a game-changing legislature.

Reducing the margin by even half, which is still a massive 20,000 votes, would present a victory for Grech. A strong performance on the fifth district will only serve to cement his position as the face of Malta’s opposition, weakening Abela in the process.

Still, it also presents a massive risk for Grech, who would face serious questions if he was humiliated by Abela, even if the PN closes the gap by some margin.

Grech will automatically face a leadership challenge if the PN loses and signs of a weak performance will trigger rivals to pounce.

The district fight is going to provide a nation with a direct comparison between the two party leaders. The victor and their supporters will be flooded with the belief that they could beat their counterparts once again by 2027, while the loser’s future will be shrouded in doubt.

The temptation to land a final blow on Grech and the PN is clear, but Abela is risking big and could suffer the consequences.

Who do you think will come out on top?