Context Is Key: What COVID-19’s Worldwide Hot Spots Would Look Like In Malta
Over three million people around the world have now been infected with COVID-19, as the current hotspot, the United States of America, continues its uphill struggle of dealing with more than one million positive cases. But what would it all look like if it had to go down in the tiny Mediterranean island of Malta?
Before embarking on this ratio-comparing endeavour, it is of course important to remember that countless variables factor in a country’s numbers. Everything from a region’s response speed and its people’s willingess to cooperate, down to which industries are most prevalent to the average population age have been seen to be important factors in how effectively this latest strain of coronavirus spreads.
Having said that, this thought experiment will help put the world’s figures in numbers and a context Maltese people are more likely to fathom and understand, as tens of thousands of people beyond our shoes constantly get infected, recover or die and the numbers pile up.
The world's latest COVID-19 updates courtesy of Johns Hopkins University, as of this morning
So let’s begin with the current hotspot, the United States of America, and scale numbers down to Malta’s population.
Taking into consideration the US’ current infection and morality rates and applying them to Malta, our island would’ve seen 1,557 infections instead of the current total of 463 cases.
Meanwhile, taking into account the US’ death rate, Malta would’ve registered 89 deaths instead of four.
New York City is currently the epicentre of the US’ COVID-19 pandemic, with 295,137 cases and 17,638 deaths.
As the USA’s most populous city, New York City’s equivalent in Malta would be St. Paul’s Bay, since the northern seaside town overtook Birkirkara back in 2018 when its population soared to 23,112.
With that reasoning, a Maltese hotspot would see a total of 812 confirmed COVID-19 cases in a populated hub like St. Paul’s Bay alone.
Directly transposing the US' figures and ratios onto Malta would result in populous areas like St. Paul's Bay and Buġibba registering hundreds of more cases
What about Italy and Spain, the two worst hit European countries?
Spain recently overtook Italy as our region’s COVID-19 hotspot, with a total of 232,128 cases and 23,822 deaths.
These ratios would be even more worrying for Malta, with Spain’s infection rate resulting in 2,400 islanders testing positive. As for deaths, Malta would’ve already registered 250 by now.
While Spain might have more cases than its tricolore neighbours, Italy still leads the European pack as far as deaths go, with 27,359 out of the total 201,505 infected people dying from COVID-19. However, with a population that exceeds Spain’s by nearly 15 million, Malta’s odds would actually stack up marginally better should Italy’s ratios be put into play instead.
With Italy’s infection and death rates, Malta would’ve had 1,647 total positive cases and 223 deaths.
Although in a currently downard trend, Italy and Spain remain the two European countries with the biggest COVID-19 numbers
And China…?
Well, the situation here is a bit muddier.
Firstly, a number of Western world countries have launched numerous scathing remarks in the direction of the virus’ source country, claiming China has been hiding, altering or even flat out lying about its official figures which should be way, way higher than the announced 84,347 total cases and 4,643 deaths.
China’s population is also so much greater than Malta’s that this thought experiment would lead to even more strenous comparisons that are extended to their rational limits… but let’s try anyway.
If China’s official cases-to-population ratio is applied, Malta would’ve had fewer than 30 total cases by now. As for the death rate, that would sit somewhere between one and two, which is actually the closest comparison to another country we’ve gotten to yet.
Interestingly enough, however, even if China’s numbers had to be multiplied by ten, their total case-to-population ratio would still be shy of Malta’s, gravitating at a total of about 300 instead of the island’s current total of 463.
When everything’s said and done, Malta is clearly still on track to being one of the best countries when it comes to handling this global pandemic.
As of today’s press conference by Public Health Superintendent Charmaine Gauci, Malta’s total number of current active cases – 120 – continues to steadily approach double digits for the first time in over a month.
However, in the same way that early and rigorous measures helped us get through these last two months comparably unscathed when compares to other countries, the way the island’s authorities plan to bring us out of it may prove to be even more essential.
What do you make of these numbers?
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