1. The 8th District – Birkirkara, Iklin, Lija and Balzan 

The eighth district, which covers Birkirkara, Iklin, Lija and Balzan, is one of the most hotly contested districts in any election. The Labour Party had managed to swing the majority in its favour in 2013 but couldn’t hold onto it in the 2017 election. 

There’s a new dimension this year after the district lost several heavy-hitters since 2017.

Former Ministers Chris Cardona and Edward Scicluna, elected off the district, have resigned. Meanwhile, MP Ian Castaldi Paris, who won Cardona’s seat in the casual election, has confirmed he will not be running following revelations over his tax issues. 

Minister Edward Zammit Lewis, who had won a casual election in the district to win his seat, is also facing numerous scandals and allegations concerning his relationship with Daphne Caruana Galizia murder suspect Yorgen Fenech. It remains to be seen whether he will be made to pay dearly for his “gahan” remark.

Rosianne Cutajar, who is also facing her own unsavoury allegations regarding Fenech, also competed on the eighth district in 2017 but failed to get the required votes. 

She will be looking to capitalise on the space left by the outgoing heavyweights especially when considering that more often than not party loyalists tend to rally behind candidates who are under fire for alleged scandals. Getting elected off two districts will cement her position in the party despite continuing scandal. 

With two seats likely up for grabs, PL figures both old and new will battle it out for the top spots. 

The situation is not much better for the PN. Therese Comodini Cachia stepping aside has opened the door for Adrian Delia to capitalise.

The former PN leader will be competing in his first general election. However, his remaining popularity among some grassroots support means he’s effectively a shoo-in for the role. 

Still, Delia does have to compete with some major PN stalwarts like Beppe Fenech Adami and David Agius. Meanwhile, people like PN Executive President Alex Perici Calascione, Iklin Mayor Dorian Sciberras, Julie Zahra, and Justin Schembri will be looking to steal a seat.

If the Labour Party wins the majority of seats in the eighth district, expect one of Delia, Fenech Adami, and Agius to pay the price.

2. The 13th District – Gozo

Gozo is historically one of the most competitive districts, with just a couple of votes often separating candidates. However, the PN has lost its previously slim majority in the district to the PL, which has now voted red in the last two general elections.

That could all change in 2022 with wholesale changes to MPs opening up the doors for a wealth of candidates.

Former Minister Justyne Caruana has resigned in disgrace, while the PN has lost no less than three MPs elected in 2017. Marthese Portelli and David Stellini left for private endeavours, while Frederick Azzopardi, unfortunately, passed away during this legislature.

Joe Ellis and Kevin Cutajar, who were not elected on the first attempt in 2017, were awarded Azzopardi and Stellini’s vacated seats and will now hope that their incumbency could result in a successful campaign.

Chris Said will likely draw the most votes from PN voters in Gozo, but there’s some serious competition for the other seats. Claudette Buttigieg, a sitting MP and deputy speaker, is competing in Gozo, while fresh face Alex Borg has not gone unnoticed and seems to be cementing himself as a rather popular candidate.

The PN lost the district in 2013 but has managed to make ground since, and they’ll be hoping to steal the three seats this time around.

From the Labour Party’s end, losing Caruana should be a significant cause for concern. Gozo Minister Clint Camilleri must be licking his lips and will be sure to try to secure his place as the politician for Gozo. Anton Refalo, a legacy candidate, will hope to maintain sufficient support to keep his seat beyond 2022.

However, it’s opened up the door for a fresh to stake their claim, while Gozo Channel Chairman Joe Cordina, who failed to get elected in 2017, will be looking to make his mark.

3. The 12th District – Mellieha, Naxxar, St Paul’s Bay

In 2017, there were just 800 votes between the PN, who won the majority of seats, and the PL on the 12th district, which covers Mellieha, Naxxar, St Paul’s Bay. This year, the Labour Party will be looking to turn the tide and steal a district that has historically voted for the current opposition. 

From a PN standpoint, the loss of Simon Busuttil to a European post means that there are a mouthwatering 9,389 first count votes up for grabs. Sitting MPs Maria Deguara, Claudette Buttigieg, Robert Cutajar, and Graziella Galea will be the ones looking to capitalise – with one certain to fall by the wayside. 

Meanwhile, the appearance of Mellieha Local Council minority leader Ivan Castillo might strike some fear in the sitting MPs, especially with voters who have grown tired of the current crop.

When it comes to the Labour Party, no less than three ministers will be competing in the locality, with Clayton Bartolo, Evarist Bartolo, and Michael Farrugia all contesting in the district in 2017. 

The Labour Party will be hoping that all three of them can use their incumbency to make their mark and win three seats at the expense of some key PN figures. The loss of Deborah Schembri, who did not get elected but still garnered 2,331 first count votes, means that several votes are also up for grabs. 

Expect the three ministers to pull out all the stops to win the coveted seats, but with the threat of just winning two a real possibility, the ministers will likely have to face off against one another.

BONUS: The Independents 

Now while third parties have historically struggled to make an impact during general elections, Marlene Farrugia and Godfrey Farrugia proved that with the right strategy anything is possible. 

Admittedly, the Farrugias did benefit from technically being on the PN ticket. However, it proves that many voters are willing to vote for candidates outside their party. 

Marlene Farrugia was elected off the 10th district, a PN stronghold that includes Sliema, Gzira, Pembroke, and St Julian’s, among others. The PN will be hoping that one of their new candidates like Mark Anthony Sammut or Joe Giglio, can take her spot, but third parties should be eying the area as a key place where they could make some gains. 

The same could be said about the 7th district, where Godfrey Farrugia has been elected. The district, which covers  Dingli, Imgarrr, Imtarfa, Rabat and Zebbug, has already lost a major player in Edward Scicluna, and someone will be looking to eat up his votes and Farrugia’s.

A PN candidate is far more likely to win that seat, but the Labour Party will hope that Ian Borg’s popularity in the district could help sway some more voters their way. 

Whatever the case, it’s going to be an exciting few months, so be sure to keep an eye for all the in-depth analysis and breakdown from Lovin Malta that help keep you informed throughout the campaign.

Who do you think will win the seats?