Malta Has Reached Its Peak Today, A Popular COVID-19 Study Has Predicted
Malta has reached its peak of the COVID-19 pandemic today, according to a widely-cited study by US data analysts.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), a global health research centre at the University of Washington, has been publishing models predicting the spread of the pandemic around the world for several weeks now.
In Malta’s case, the study had predicted on 7th April that it will confirm 19 COVID-19 related deaths by August but that its healthcare systems won’t be overflowed at the current rate.
It had predicted today, 22nd April, as the ‘peak’, defined as the day the country will require the most hospital resources. According to the original study, Malta was going to need 33 hospital beds, eight intensive care beds and seven ventilators on this day.
IHME's peak predictions for Malta on 7th April
IHME's revised peak predictions for Malta on 22nd April
Although it still predicts the peak has been hit today, the IHME has since revised its resources predictions downwards and now forecasts we will need 19 hospital beds, four intensive care beds and four ventilators.
The real figures tell a slightly different story.
Malta’s latest hospitalisation records show that 35 beds, at Mater Dei, Paul Boffa Hospital, St Thomas Hospital and Mount Carmel, are currently being used for COVID-19 patients.
Two people are in intensive care, with one of them using a ventilator.
The study also shows that Malta currently has 20 ITU beds, but Health Minister Chris Fearne recently announced the stock has been increased significantly to 125.
Final preparations to the last 44 #Covid_19 #ITU beds – a total of 125 ITU beds (up from 20) at Mater Dei alone. Please, please help us keep them empty #StayIn #StaySafe pic.twitter.com/jpexz0Lk1o
— Chris Fearne (@chrisfearne) April 18, 2020
The IHME study had also recently predicted that Malta would register 19 deaths by the start of August but has since revised that number downwards to 13.
Three COVID-19 patients have died in Malta so far, with the most recent death on 11th April.
Malta today confirmed one new COVID-19 case and 15 new recoveries, bringing the number of currently active cases down to 276.
IHME's death predictions for Malta on 7th April
IHME's revised death predictions for Malta on 22nd April
It is the fourth consecutive day Malta has registered declines in active cases and the number of active cases is now slightly lower than what it was on 7th April, when the island confirmed 52 new COVID-19 cases, the largest rise so far.
Maltese authorities have said social distancing restrictions could be gradually eased at the current rate, but with caution to prevent a huge spike in new infections. While several European countries have already started easing restrictions or presenting draft exit strategies, Malta has so far only confirmed, on 15th April, that such a strategy is in the pipeline.
Superintendent of Public Health Charmaine Gauci
While several predictions have been published since the outbreak of the pandemic, the IHME study has been far more influential than most, even being cited in White House briefings. The Washington Post recently described it as “America’s most influential coronavirus model”
It created a stir in the UK earlier this month when it predicted the country will confirm 66,000 deaths by August but it has since revised the prediction downwards to just over 33,000.
Could Malta have reached its peak?
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