Ripples of a shift towards the “populist right” are being felt all over Europe, and I guess that it’s linked to the EU taking measures that risk sacrificing people’s immediate quality of life for greater goals like tackling climate change and stopping Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Life has undoubtedly become more expensive in Malta, and a feeling that quality of life is dipping coupled with concern at the high number of foreign workers in the country could tempt people to give Lowell a chance, safe in the knowledge that he is not being elected to run the country but to make a noise in Europe and send a warning sign to the political class.

Lowell has steadily increased his votes – from 1,600 in 2004 to 8,200 in 2019 – and he finished eighth last time around, only two spots away from the finish line. All it will take is a few thousand disillusioned PL voters to vote Lowell, and the Imperium Europa leader could become one of Malta’s six MEPs.

If those few thousands happen to like Muscat, it could make all the difference.

2. Placing Muscat on the ballot would allow PL to properly politicise the election.

PL has shown time and time again that it shines on the political battlefield for people’s hearts, but for this strategy to work you need an opponent.

Bernard Grech isn’t a confrontational leader, which has made it harder for PL to resort to partisan tactics. PL supporters aren’t warming up to Grech but it’s hard for PL to convince its supporters that he poses an actual threat.

However, nominating Muscat will change the name of the game by allowing PL to pitch the election as a battle for votes between Muscat and Roberta Metsola. Not only will it create the excitement of a race but it will allow PL voters to voice their disgruntlement with the EU by knocking the European Parliament President down a few rungs, all while remaining contained within the party.

This could also be a pre-emptive move for Abela to politically weaken his next adversary. If PN decides to change leaders after the election, Metsola will be at the top of the list, but if she finishes behind Muscat despite holding the EP President role, her stock would have fallen somewhat.

3. Abela might be pre-empting potential political fallout as a result of the ongoing Vitals inquiry.

The Prime Minister has exposed his own fears that magistrate Gabriella Vella could conclude her inquiry shortly before the election. If that proves to be the case and Muscat faces some sort of criminal action with Abela leaving him to fight his battle by himself, it’s anyone’s guess what the political fallout could look like.

Not only is Muscat beloved by the PL base but, despite the 2019 political crisis, he remains extremely respected by several prominent PL politicians and activists. It’s unlikely that they will all just let Muscat swim on his own, and if Abela doesn’t show his support they could view it as a betrayal and react by punishing him at the polls.

It won’t be enough for him to lose the election but it could be enough for the gap to shrink somewhat and for PL to lose its fourth seat to PN or Lowell. If that proves to be the case, Abela will be politically weakened, which will embolden his critics and possibly raise doubts among some of his supporters.

On the other hand, reintegrating Muscat into the party from now would send a warning shot to magistrate Vella that an inquiry outcome that is negative to Muscat will not only anger him but the entire government.

At the end of the day, she is a human being and might well be hesitant to stoke the fury of the most powerful government in Malta’s history.

The biggest risks for Abela are that Muscat will overshadow his leadership by virtue of being a way better political communicator than the current Prime Minister, and that reintegrating him will seriously neuter his own authority in taking action against his team members.

With no fear of political reprisal, PL politicians will feel emboldened to do whatever they want. It was this state of play that led to Muscat’s downfall and Abela should be wary of history repeating itself.

There is also a risk that Malta’s international reputation will once again take a hit and old wounds could be reopened if Muscat is seen to be consolidating power.

It is a catch-22 situation though, and Abela seems to have taken a calculated risk, embarking on what he believes is the path of least resistance, at least in the short-term. Only time will tell what the consequences of this move will be.  

Do you think Joseph Muscat will contest the MEP election?