Robert Abela Is Part Of The Establishment And This Timing Will Probably Help Labour
When I checked out the PN’s campaign launch in Mosta last weekend, I was a little bit surprised by the mood.
There was no sense of gleeful hand-rubbing that magistrate Gabriella Vella might be about to nail their arch-nemesis Joseph Muscat. Instead, there was a sense of trepidation in the air, of resigned expectation even.
“The timing of the inquiry is only going to help Labour in the elections,” a number of PN politicians told me.
Then again, it shouldn’t have come as much of a surprise.
Labour has shown time and time again that it’s strongest when it feels it is under attack by outside forces. Whereas PN tends to crack and split down the middle, PL is anti-fragile and has an uncanny habit of using crises to its advantage by mobilising its forces against a common foe.
In fact, Robert Abela didn’t even wait for the inquiry’s findings to be published before declaring the election a battle between the PL and the “establishment”. He spotted a political opportunity and pounced.
Of course, Abela isn’t really fighting the establishment. The government is by far the most powerful entity in the country and Abela’s party has been in charge of it for over a decade with massive electoral majorities.
The question isn’t whether Abela is part of the establishment (he obviously is) but whether the establishment will manage to wipe out all opposition to it.
Yet the “anti-establishment” pitch can resonate with voters; everyone would rather believe they’re supporting the underdog than the establishment. And the ingredients are all in place for Labour to turn this inquiry into a successful electoral story.
The timing of the inquiry’s conclusion, so close to an election, is certainly curious, and 8th June likely crossed the magistrate’s mind before she passed the inquiry on to the Attorney General.
However, the narrative that she chose the date to deal maximum damage to Labour looks flawed.
Firstly, Gabriella Vella has her own professional integrity to take care of. Muscat and Abela had already criticised her handling of the inquiry multiple times, so she should have known that concluding it a few weeks before the election would have turned her into a boogeyman in the eyes of several PL supporters.
But secondly, if she was politically motivated, wouldn’t it have been better for her to wait until after the election before formally concluding it? A recent survey by Vincent Marmara found that Labour was on course to win the election by some 22,400 votes, a healthy majority but a far cry from their usual 35,000+ margins.
If Gabriella Vella had to drop the bomb just as Labour was engaging in some soul-searching, wouldn’t it have been more politically effective?
I strongly suspect there’s a deeper reason behind the magistrate’s reason to conclude it now, but it cannot be denied that there is a certain truthiness about Labour’s narrative that “the magistrate concluded the inquiry now because she is a PN supporter and wants to damage Labour’s electoral changes”. It is likely to stick in the minds of several people.
Of course, the long-term future for some PL exponents is uncertain. Getting charged in court is no joke, and at some point, the raw human desire to avoid serious punishment could trump any political considerations. And Abela has now tied himself to Muscat’s mast.
However, in terms of short-term electoral goals, it has breathed some fire into a Labour Party that was starting to look tired and complacent and provided them with a perfect appeal for party loyalty when facing otherwise disgruntled PL supporters.
Don’t be surprised if the timing of this inquiry turns out to be a shot in the arm for Abela and the establishment.
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