Here Are 5 Alternative Futures And How They Will Affect Malta in 2025
The European Union has just turned 60 years old, no doubt a remarkable feat for a group of countries which not too long ago used to be at each others’ throats. However, while it is good to pause and reflect, the time has now come to look to the future – because change is coming.
If you read media reports on Brexit and the rise of eurosceptic parties across the continent, you could easily be fooled into believing the EU is a ticking time-bomb. However, this could not be further from the truth – not only is the EU not about to implode, but it is actually giving its citizens the chance to decide what sort of EU we would like to live in by 2025.
Yes, this basically means making your voice heard now could well have profound implications on the future of Europe.
Despite forming part of the smallest member state, Maltese opinions have weight too.
People are free to propose whatever plans they want but, to help you out, the European Commission has come up with five vastly different scenarios of how the EU could look like in the future.
1. ‘Business as usual’
The unity of EU 27 is preserved but may still be tested in the event of a crisis. Maybe you’re perfectly fine with the European Union as it is, have grown fed up with the constant media noise and don’t want to take a risky step into the unknown. With this first scenario, the EU’s changes will be minimal – it will not move to clamp down on freedom of movement, but it will ramp up security controls at its borders nevertheless.
It will not attempt to create a federal ‘United States of Europe’ and the euro will remain pretty much untouched, but instead will focus on making lives easier for its citizens in the short-term, such as by embracing driverless cars and high-speed internet and moving to cut electricity bills.
How it could impact Malta: Barring any shocks to the system, Malta will keep on progressing as it currently is, tapping into the opportunities offered by the current set-up and adhering to the obligations of EU membership.
2. ‘Less Europe, just focus on trade’
This scenario will see the EU return to its early roots as merely a free trade bloc with a possible increase in restrictions imposed on EU citizens travelling to other member states due to insufficient co-operation on security and migration matters. Companies may benefit from a reduction in EU red tape at the expense of consumers and the environment. Decision-making may be simpler to understand but the capacity to act collectively is limited.
The euro will not immediately be abolished, but will be placed under significant strain as member states start developing diverging internal and foreign policies.
How it could impact Malta: Fresh restrictions on freedom of movement will come as a blow to Maltese businesses seeking to hire foreign workers, as well as to Maltese people seeking to move abroad.
3. ‘The multi-speed Europe’
The convoy moves at different speeds. In this scenario the EU 27 carry on as today but like-minded member states can decide to do more in specific areas – the coalition of the willing.
With that in mind, this vision of the EU will allow member states advocating further EU unity – such as tax harmonisation – to forge ahead with their plans while leaving sceptical countries by the wayside.
One of the favoured options of Malta’s Prime Minister Joseph Muscat and his powerful French and German counterparts, this vision will allow the EU to shed its image as a painstakingly slow-moving machine although its long-term implications for the union itself are unclear.
How it could impact Malta: Malta would be able to push forward on issues that it deems a priority together with like-minded member states.
4. ‘Less is more’
Not as reductive as the second scenario. This vision will see the EU focus all of its energy to tackle better certain priorities not limited to trade while scaling back on its control over member states’ agenda. For instance if another refugee crisis emerges, the EU 27 could decide that the EU coast guard takes up the management of the union’s external borders – the oft spoken about “burden sharing” being put into practice.
The EU will step back from its state aid restrictions and its regional development agenda, and will give governments far more leeway to set their own environmental, consumer, employment and social policy laws.
How it could impact Malta: The government could have more freedom in providing state aid to industries such as those investing in alternative sources of energy. However, it will no longer be able to benefit from a wealth of EU funding – which has helped in projects from the Oncology hospital to Esplora Science museum.
5. Doing more together
The ideal option for those who argue the European Union’s inefficiency ultimately stems from its lack of control over individual governments.
This vision boldly calls upon member states to give up more of their powers to the EU for the greater good of a more efficient union. It would make Eurozone and Schengen Zone membership mandatory for member states, and could herald a European army and tax harmonisation.
How it could impact Malta: Potential moves towards the creation of an EU army will test Malta’s constitutional neutrality like never before while the imposition of a fairer tax structure may have implications on the future of Malta’s financial service and i-gaming industries.
What is your ideal vision for the European Union? Let us know what you think on Facebook or in the comments below
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