What’s happened in previous elections?

The 2nd District has voted in a significant Labour Party majority in every election by almost 72%, but that margin has only increased as time has gone by with nearly 72% of all constituents voting red in 2017. 

The area has been loyal to the Labour Party since its early days, and any change during this general election seems practically impossible. 

The PN did manage to secure two seats in the 1998 general election. However, that was off the back of a major split between former Prime Minister Dom Mintoff and the Prime Minister of the time, Alfred Sant.

PM, Cabinet members, MPs and mayors battle it out: Which candidate could cause an upset?

Expect no less than the Labour Party winning four of the available five seats this time around. And while the PN certainly stands no chance of turning the tide, the country could be set for a hotly-contested district battle where internal party rivals could lock horns in dramatic fashion. 

From the PN’s end, Stephen Spiteri is a shoo-in to get elected once again. In 2017, he won a whopping 4,671 first count votes, 600 more than the established quota. Outside candidates will be hoping to cause an upset, but in truth, it seems practically impossible.

Instead, all eyes should be on the Labour Party with the Prime Minister, Cabinet members, MPs and popular candidates set to battle it out for the four available spots. 

Prime Minister Robert Abela will be competing in the district, the first time he is doing so. He will likely lap up most of the first count votes, but there are concerns that members of the inner circle will lose out to party members still loyal to his predecessor, Joseph Muscat, who contested that district in 2017. 

Meanwhile, the loss of Helena Dalli, who left to become EU Commissioner, means that a large number of votes is also up for grabs.

Finance Minister Clyde Caruana, Home Affairs Minister Byron Camilleri, OPM Minister Carmelo Abela, Parliamentary Secretary Chris Agius, government whip Glenn Bedingfield, MP Oliver Scicluna and former minister Joe Mizzi are all battling out for the remaining four seats.

It’s clear that some heavyweights will be missing out. Abela will hope that Caruana and Scicluna, who very much form part of his inner circle, will secure a seat in their first election since becoming MPs. Caruana, who is not an active campaigner, will hope that his status is enough to win here and on the 8th Disrtict.

Alison Zerafa Civelli, the Mayor of Bormla who also happens to be Abela’s sister-in-law, also stands a real chance of winning a seat. She’s already massively popular in Bormla, and her ties to the party leader will undoubtedly boost her. 

However, at least one of them is likely to miss out. Agius is massively popular in the district, as is Mizzi – and were both elected from the area in 2017. Bedingfield, meanwhile, was elected through a casual election (after Dalli vacated her seat) and has worked hard throughout the legislature on issues that impact the locality. 

Abela will be hoping that his canvassers will convince voters to give his allies their preference votes and potentially oust those loyal to Muscat. Abela, who is also running on the 5th district, could also vacate his 2nd District seat and open up the race to a casual election.

Zerafa Civelli could also be one of the many female candidates who will benefit from the gender corrective mechanism. 

Muscat, on his part, is trying to influence the decision and has been endorsing Bedingfield and Agius on the campaign trail and visits to the area. His influence will surely play his part with grassroots voters in the area still backing the now-disgraced political leader. 

What are the key district issues likely to influence the vote?

The 2nd District has experienced a complete transformation over the last decade and a half, having seen a wealth of government investment in the area, which continues till today. 

Bedingfield, for example, has been a key face in the Grand Harbour Regeneration Project, which includes areas in the district. 

However, the influx of funds has come with its problems and is probably best expressed in the controversy surrounding the AUM, with residents leading protest movements over its proposed extension. 

Meanwhile, heavy pollution caused by cruise liners remains an issue, with residents regularly raising concerns over the impact of fumes on their environment and personal health. 

The areas have also been subject to heavy development. While areas like Birgu, Isla and Kalkara are being preserved, the same cannot be said for the other localities in the district. 

Still, loyalties to certain candidates might remain, and personal ties could be a determining factor between the candidates.

Who is likely to come out on top this time around?

Unless hell freezes over, the Labour Party is likely to storm to victory once again. The real question is which candidates are going to miss out. 

All indications point towards a successful election for Abela, but the door remains firmly open for other candidates to steal the seats. Mizzi looks like he could continue building upon his continuing electoral performance. Still, there will be questions as to whether his exclusion from Cabinet and public eye will have an effect. 

Clyde Caruana and Bedingfield look the most likely to capitalise, but there’s a bigger chance that neither makes the cut the first time round and will need to rely on a casual election, which will actually preclude them from joining Cabinet at the start of the legislature. 

If you’re from the 2nd District and what to share your views on your district election, please reach out to [email protected].

Who is going to win?