What’s happened in previous elections?

The 1st District is often times looked at as a microcosm for Maltese voter trends and its votes regularly reflect the outcome on a national level.

In 2017, it voted for the Labour Party with a significant 15% margin, a slight increase from 2013. The ruling government will undoubtedly be hoping for a repeat in 2022.

However, this has not always been the case. In 2008, the district voted in a PL majority by the slimmest of margins, just 20 votes. In 2003, the PN won by a comfortable gap. Unfortunately for the PN, the loss of Claudio Grech will put a dent in plans to try to turn the tide.

Which candidates could cause an upset?

The Labour Party looks likely to win three seats once again this time around. However, there could be some major challenges to the incumbents competing in the district.

Andy Ellul, who was co-opted as an MP in January and is seen as a close ally of Abela, will be looking to cause a major upset, having been campaigning actively well before he was handed a parliamentary seat.

Debattista has already reacted, asking former Prime Minister Joseph Muscat to accompany him and endorse him along the campaign trail.

Pieta Mayor Keith Azzopardi Tanti, who is in the running to dethrone one of the incumbents, has taken note, with Muscat delivering an address at his campaign launch in Marsa.

Cressida Galea, a young political candidate who hails from the district, is also a dark horse in the race. She took part in one of Abela’s first press conferences after announcing the election and has been campaigning quite aggressively in the district. She could just be one of the few to benefit from the newly installed gender corrective mechanism.

When it comes to the PN, the door is wide open for a new face to make the parliamentary floor.

The loss of Claudio Grech, who authored the manifesto, is major for the PN, even if the party is doing all it can to present his decision to not contest as a victory.

Paula Mifsud Bonnici is the one most likely to capitalise. She just missed out in 2017 but has continued working at the very top of the party’s internal structures. Meanwhile, she also comes from a major political family, meaning that many in her district count her as a familiar and trusted face.

Darren Carabott, the minority leader in the Santa Venera Council, is likely to be her biggest challenger. Beyond already having a substantial voting base in his locality, Carabott was formerly a journalist with NET News and is likely known already to quite a few.

Justin Schembri, a PN figure who has been vocal on migration, which is one of the biggest issues in the district, could also capitalise.

What are the key district issues likely to influence the vote?

While Valletta, Malta’s capital city, has benefitted massively from millions of investment. The same cannot be said for the other localities in the district.

Marsa and Hamrun, in particular, have seen longstanding social issues further exacerbated by poorly managed migration and integration in the area. The open centre and the area surrounding it have seen an uptake in crime, with residents continuously raising concerns over their safety.

Migrants, meanwhile, have been forced to find homes in stables or out onto the streets, with the government reluctant to find a long term sustainable solution amid potential backlash from voters. Workers’ conditions for migrants are also abysmal.

And while it was named Malta’s capital of culture for 2022, a lot of work needs to be done in the area to make sure it does not quickly go out of control.

It’s an area Schembri will be hoping to capitalise on. However, Partit Popolari, a fringe right-wing political party, might also be eying the district as where it could make an impact.

Construction and overdevelopment is also of major concern for the district. Three major collapses, including the one that killed Miriam Pace, all took place in the district and within close proximity of one another.

Development in the areas is rampant, but still little concern is given to the likely geographical issues with unabated construction in the localities. It remains to be seen whether any candidates will tackle the issue head-on.

Which party is likely to come out on top this time around ??

All indications point towards the Labour Party keeping hold of its majority in the 1st District with three Cabinet members and a sitting MP all contesting.

The PN, meanwhile, has lost Claudio Grech, a popular figure among grassroots voters, meaning that the struggling party will be counting on new candidates to make up the ground.

All eyes will be on who misses out with Labour Party candidates pulling out all the stops to make it out on top.

If you’re from the 1st District and what to share your views on your district election, please reach out to [email protected].

Who is going to win?