Labour Remains In The Lead But Drops Two Points, EP Election Survey Finds
The Labour Party remains in the lead for European Parliament election votes with an absolute majority of 50.7%. However, it has dropped two points since March, a MaltaToday survey shows.
The Nationalist Party scored 44.2%, seven points lower than the PL – translating to a voting gap of 17,100 in a predicted 71% turnout.
PL led PN by 10 points in March with a 28,700 vote advantage as well as a suspected turnout of 77%. However, this does not reflect any significant gain from the opposition, with a vote share increase of just 1.6 points.
The most politically active group, according to the study, is the 65+ with only 14.6% of them saying they will not vote. The seemingly most apathetic are those between 36 and 50 years old with 45.2% saying they will not vote, followed by the 44.4% of the 16 to 35 year olds.
The survey looks at the electorate over the last two weeks in April before the official start of the parties’ campaigns and the volatile week characterised by recent developments from the Vitals Healthcare magisterial inquiry.
The survey does not reflect the electorate’s potential mood switch in light of this political fallout, with speculation of the arraignment of former prime minister Joseph Muscat as well as the attacks on the judiciary committed by current Prime Minister Robert Abela.
Nonetheless, the survey confirms a trend that shows that abstention from voting is disproportionately penalising the Labour Party. This was further affirmed by the increase of non-voters being registered in Labour strongholds.
This pattern was only disrupted in the March survey, presumably as a result of speculation on Muscat’s candidature.
That month, the survey experienced a nine-point increase in turnout compared to February.
The elections are taking place on 8th June.
Do you expect another change in numbers in light of this week’s events?
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