An unprepared and inconsistent PN 

Bernard Grech has only been the PN leader for a year and a half, a measly time frame when considering the unassailable lead the PL had at the time. In 2019, when Adrian Delia was at the helm, the PL beat the PN in the MEP elections by 43,000 votes, with surveys even suggesting that that PL lead had almost doubled at the time Grech had taken over.

The constant revolving door approach to leaders and core team members has created an inconsistent party that left it very late to start grappling with and putting together the semblance of a credible vision

In truth, the five years since the last election have been a complete waste of time to the PN, who spent three years arguing between themselves rather than addressing the internal issues at hand.

It split its own supporters in two and has been more preoccupied with retaining supporters than launching any impressive attempts to bring new faces on board. 

It created inconsistent policy with the PN regularly flip-flopping on crucial issues – whether that was cannabis, the Gozo tunnel and even COVID-19.

Grech, on his part, was a complete political novice when he became PN leader, having had little to no experience in political life beyond leading an unsuccessful anti-divorce campaign. And while he did impressive work in bringing in new, fresh faces, it was too little too late, with members of the old guard still dominating discourse.

Even the trackless tram, a cornerstone PN electoral pledge, went off the rails soon after it was announced with candidates failing to even get the basics right on crucial policy. 

The latest result might start the merry-go-round all over again with Grech now facing a leadership race as per party statute. 

Labour Party leans into economic prowess

The Labour Party has overseen immense economic growth and the government performed well during the pandemic as it distributed millions through incentives and schemes to help soften the impact of the pandemic on the local economy. It’s something people can feel on a daily basis. 

While the cost of living has certainly increased, people also have more disposable income and in some cases better opportunities for employment.

It’s something Abela and his team understood well, and regularly said that his government was “a safe pair of hands” to handle the uncertainty ahead, particularly as the Ukraine-Russia war continues. 

He presented the PN as ‘unfit’ to govern and his criticism of the PN’s manifesto costings certainly left their mark. 

Greylisting also failed to make any significant inroads with Grech’s attempts to blame the issue squarely on Abela fell on deaf ears, with seemingly large numbers attributing the issues to Muscat’s administration.

And while corruption allegations and greylisting are certainly major issues, the PN eroded any sense of being the voice on good governance issues during its 20+ years in power. People, it seems, would rather go with the devil they know, particularly if the other choices have little to offer. 

Expecting people who have voted on way to magically switch to the other side following decades of turmoil is a hard task. When faced with a choice between the PL and PN, who are not too different politically, it needs to take a lot more to convince people to make the switch.

The PN did do its part to push the idea that it would create 10 new industries, but its ESG requirements were so poorly explained and translated to the electorate that it barely left a hit. 

Grech also made the mistake of focusing on the economy during the debate. While there is definite criticism, there should have been stronger arguments and a more concrete vision, as his policies were ripped apart by Abela.

The power of incumbency 

Bernard Grech has already been pointing to the power of incumbency, particularly the distribution of cheques to voters just a week or so before the election, as a reason behind the loss.

And while people may think that the cheques would not influence votes, think of the message it sends: the government is doing so well economically that it can dish out cheques to the entire nation (even though that money is technically ours to begin with).

Cabinet ministers have also been busy over the last few weeks and months introducing major projects for the districts they are contesting in – whether that’s financial incentives or significant green projects.

Candidates have also been busy gift-giving to their voters, but really that is common across both sides of the divide.

Of course, narrowing it down to just the power of incumbency does present a worrying state of affairs for the PN, which continues to fail to realise that its inability to convince voters lies far deeper and has a lot to do with the current crop of candidates and its policy direction.

Corruption takes a backseat 

The PN was hesitant to make corruption a key issue, as it was still licking its wounds from 2017. However, it was barely a footnote during this election, as Grech and his allies sought to create a positive campaign, free of any major standoffs. 

Not once in any of the political debates was Abela expected to explain major scandals. Instead, the party chose to focus on the Prime Minister’s links with alleged criminals, rather than address the elephant in the room. 

Daphne Caruana Galizia was murdered just months after the 2017 election and the assassination’s links to some of the most prominent officials in the government were completely ignored. And while Joseph Muscat, Konrad Mizzi and Chris Cardona have stepped down, Carmelo Abela, Edward Zammit Lewis and Rosianne Cutajar all escaped unscathed.

Meanwhile, Abela was able to time and time again remind voters that his government instituted reforms – presenting changes made as landmark government initiatives when really they were imposed on the country by international bodies.

Even corruption allegations during Abela’s tenure were largely ignored. His reinstatement of Justyne Caruana following her resignation over her estranged husband’s links to the murder should have been a major topic, particularly after she was forced to resign over a dodgy direct order handed out to her new boyfriend. 

Abela waited months before taking any action, allowing Caruana a graceful exit from her position, while she still remained an MP. In other cases, he simply did not take action and that should have been made clear to the electorate.

These actions had a direct influence on Malta’s greylisting and while many might think everyone knows the major corruption allegations, the truth is that there have been so many it’s hard to keep track. 

Abela steps up to the plate during the campaign

While Abela certainly had the benefit of a major majority when he took over, many did doubt his ability to lead an election campaign. And while he was far from inspirational, he strayed from getting embroiled in any major controversies. 

Obviously, he was helped by his repeated refusal to engage with the independent press in interviews or debates. Still, he was focused on simply translating the party’s manifesto into clear deliverables rather than vague commitments which characterised the PN. 

He took each debate on the chin and never engaged in silly tit-for-tats with the PN leader. Abela purposefully avoided making this race dirty, trusting in the message of his party.

Abela also made quick work of settling controversial issues during his tenure, like the Marsaskala Marina. Of course, there is no guarantee that the project will not be restarted once the next legislature.

On the whole, Abela presented a safe pair of hands throughout the campaign – capitalising on the PN’s resistance to engage in a confrontational election. 

Abela also introduced proposals that effectively nullified the PN. And while the PN made it seem as though presenting the manifesto very early on was a good idea, any significant proposal was co-opted or improved upon by Labour. 

PN losing credibility on liberal issues 

The PN continues to haemorrhage support among Malta’s liberal and progressive voters. Its inconsistent messaging on cannabis reform and its continued blanket ban to even discuss abortion would have hurt the party this time around.

Once again, despite changes, the party continues to prove to the nation that it is not the party willing to discuss some of the most important social issues in the country. It has lost the battle on divorce, LGBTIQ+ rights and now drug reform. 

It is also losing the battle on sexual health, with Abela at least admitting that abortion at least merits serious discussion in the country.

With a whole army of 16-year-old voters heading to polls this time around, the PN probably lost big in convincing them that the PN was their party for the future. Whether the party can even consider turning the tide in 2027 remains a major question.

For now, Abela will celebrate, confident in the knowledge that he can finally start moving away from Muscat;’s administration.

On the other hand, a dejected Grech and the PN will need to undergo a substantial soul searching exercise after yet another humbling defeat. Something it has so far failed to do effectively on the previous occasions.

Why do you think the PN lost?