Malta’s general election surveys are a tricky minefield to navigate with pollsters putting the current gap between the Labour Party and the Nationalist Party anywhere between 50,000 and 26,000 votes. But one specific response found that a large minority of respondents regretted the way they voted in 2017, which could have a significant impact on voting patterns come 26th March.

A Misco survey asked respondents whether they regretted the way they voted in 2017 in an attempt to capture voter sentiment beyond simple intentions.

Around 11% of respondents said that they did. Of these, 66% said that they voted PL in 2017, compared to just 9% of the PN. 

It marks a stark shift from 2017 when 7% said they regretted the way they voted with the PL/PN split far more evenly at 52% and 35% respectively. That year, the PL managed to increase their massive margin over the PN during a heated campaign defined by corruption allegations.

However, it seems that many who regretted their vote in 2017 will simply not turn up to the polls this time around. Almost 25% of people who regretted their vote in 2017 said that they would not vote this time around, while around 40% would not reveal who they would vote for.

In fact, the gap between the PN and PL is quite even when analysing those who regretted their vote with their voting intentions for 2022. Around 18% said they will be voting PL, while 17% said they will be voting for PN.

Still, there does seem to be a slight shift when compared with data from 2017. Back then, 26% of people who regretted their vote in 2013 said they would be voting PL compared to 20% of the PN. Just 8% had said they would not be voting.

Of course, the way in which people who regretted their vote in 2017 will behave on election day can only truly be gaged once the results are known. And with more than two weeks left of the election, it’s still all to play for ahead of the two remaining debates between Prime Minister Robert Abela and PN leader Bernard Grech.

In 2017, there was a fairly equal shift between moving from one party to another and vice-versa. But this year’s survey does give some indication of a greater shift in sentiment towards the PN. Whether that translates into actual votes remains to be seen.

The survey does reflect a widespread voting sentiment in the country highlighted in other surveys which show that almost 30% of all voters have either said they don’t know who they will vote for or will not vote altogether.

It hints at a growing voter apathy in the usually politically charged Malta – whether any party can capitalise on it remains to be seen.

The survey was conducted among 745 respondents. Interviews were conducted by telephone and respondents were chosen using a random digit dialling system. Interviewing was conducted between 28th February and 3rd March 2022

Do you think voter regret will have an impact in 2022?