Labour-PN Gap Could Be More Than 30,000 Votes But Undecided Voters Still Play Major Role
Malta’s Labour Party is currently leading the PN by 11%, a gap of more than 30,000 votes, but those who do not intend to fill in the ballot or who do not intend to make use of their vote may yet have a bearing on the final result.
With a week left of the electoral campaign, a Misco survey commissioned by Lovin Malta reveals that around 44% of the electorate currently support the PL, compared to 33% for the PN.
However, 11% said they would not be voting this time around, while the remaining 10% refused to reveal their voting intention.
Just 2% said they would be voting for smaller parties, who continue to fail to make an impact in national elections.
In 2017, the Labour Party won by a little over 35,000 votes, increasing their margin from 2013’s landslide election. It appears that the gap will narrow this time around, but with close to 21% of votes unaccounted for, it could still be all to play for.
Almost 45% of new voters refused to say who they would vote or will simply not vote at all. And while the PN does have a slight advantage over new voters, it appears that a large majority of them are disillusioned by the current system.
A potential indication of where unaccounted voters could be leaning come 26th March is among respondents who regretted their choice in 2017.
Around 9% of respondents said they regretted their choice in 2017, the majority of whom had voted for the Labour Party (56%). Meanwhile, 32% of respondents did regret voting PN in 2017, showing that both parties have somewhat lost support.
However, it seems that many who regretted their vote in 2017 will simply not turn up to the polls this time around. Almost 44% of people who regretted their vote in 2017 said that they would not vote this time around.
In fact, the gap between the PN and PL is quite even when analysing those who regretted their vote with their voting intentions for 2022. Around 21% said they will be voting PL, while 20% said they will be voting for PN.
What’s clear is that despite voting intentions, an overwhelming majority of people believe that the Labour Party will win the election. A massive 85% of respondents said that the ruling party will continue to govern, cementing the underdog status of the PN.
Still, a larger majority for the PL seems unlikely with 82% of respondents saying that the party will not increase its gap this time around.
Lovin Malta’s survey covers a wide range of crucial questions ahead of next week’s election from party leaders, key issues and media coverage.
This survey was conducted among a random sample of 457 respondents between the 9th March and 11th March. Interviews were conducted on the telephone by trained interviewers under the direct supervision of MISCO coordinators. Respondents were selected using the random digit dialling method. A total of 574 persons were contacted to achieve a sample of 457 respondents.
A sample of 457 provides a margin of error within ±4.7%. However when one applies the weighting efficiency resulting from the weighting of the data by age, gender and region, the margin of error increases to ±5.4%. The weighting efficiency is the amount of skewing that had to be done to align the sample to the actual population data.
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