Leading Malta into an optimistic summer 

Abela insisted in his political address announcing the election that a March date was chosen to help lead Malta into a period of stability following the COVID-19 pandemic and economic downturn. 

Malta’s summer season brings with a major influx of cash from tourists that is felt throughout the Maltese economy. Abela won’t want the election to jeopardise that and in effect, anger businesses hungry to get on with their operations, particularly if global inflation and economic downturn continues. 

The result is a foregone conclusion

The current election does feel like watching a thriller but already knowing the ending. Unless the Labour Party implodes in a massive and unforeseeable way, it will undoubtedly win the 2022 general election, the only question seems to be as to what margin. 

Abela might just want the shorter season so that people out there can get it over and done with – helping them move on beyond the petty political squabbles and into the very real challenges the country will be facing beyond the vote. 

Candidates from both parties have already started campaigning heavily and a shorter season might help cut to the chase rather than letting it drag on for months.

Pushing through greylisting concerns and economic uncertainty 

Greylisting remains a stain on Robert Abela’s administration left over by his predecessor, Joseph Muscat, with Malta’s economic uncertain future troubling swathes across a wide myriad of industries in the country. 

The government has worked tirelessly to implement crucial legislative reforms to get Malta back into the clear but the FATF remains concerned over the lack of follow-through and enforcement. 

The FATF plenary will meet this week, and a positive outcome might just be the impetus for Abela to present his leadership as one that guarantees stability during uncertain times. 

On February 14th, Abela said that the country had completed its action plan, insisting that the government will be getting Malta off the grey list.

However, Abela might also be preempting a major economic downturn throughout 2022 and 2023, securing his position before uncertainty hits overdrive and people’s pockets (and therefore votes) start being affected.

A papal blessing 

Pope Francis will be heading to Malta just a week after the nation goes to the polls, providing Abela with the perfect opportunity to present an image of national unity underneath the Roman Catholic banner. 

The Pope’s visit was meant to be free of political discourse, but it will most certainly provide Abela with a very visual papal blessing ahead of the new legislature. Unless, PN prayers are answered. 

Catch the PN off guard 

While the March election was an open secret in political circles, the PN will still have a lot of work to do to turn the tide within five weeks. The margin between the two parties currently stands at 40,000 votes, reflecting previous dismal electoral performances by the struggling PN. 

Bernard Grech has made a lot of headway since taking over as leader a year and a half ago, bringing in a number of fresh faces along the way. However, a similar performance to his predecessors will undoubtedly cause party insiders to seriously rethink his position, particularly since party statute demands a leadership election after an electoral loss. 

Abela, much like his predecessors, has seen elections all but destroy the losers, who often have to go through an entire rebuilding process, leaving them weak to compete with a well-oiled Labour Party machine during election campaigns. Winning this election could be a final blow to Grech’s tenure.

Meanwhile, Abela will be hoping that the short time window will prove detrimental for the PN’s fresh faces hoping to get on the parliamentary floor, with voters typically turning to trusted figures during snap elections. 

Make the most out of a positive few months 

While Abela’s government certainly courted controversy over its handling of recent COVID-19 restrictions and vaccine certificates, it has still been able to curry favour with the public through its reform to cannabis legislation, the budget, and several green measures. 

He seems to have been able to distance himself from Muscat’s tenure, despite leading the same parliamentary group and continuing scandals. He has expertly been able to divert scandal to his predecessors time, presenting himself as the one willing to take action – whether that’s Justyne Caruana, Ian Castaldi Paris or Silvio Grixti. 

Meanwhile, he could use the opportunity to absolve under-fire MPs facing major allegations like Rosianne Cutajar, Minister Carmelo Abela, Minister Edward Zammit Lewis, and Minister Clayton Bartolo.

In truth, Abela’s COVID policies and continued scandal, including his own, might make a dent in the vote, but the question is whether the Labour Party will feel it. 

But it could blow up in his face…

Abela is playing a risky game by turning to a snap election, echoing his predecessor, Joseph Muscat’s moves back in 2017, that have since been linked to the murder of Daphne Caruana Galizia. It creates an unsavoury comparison to a piece of Maltese history the Labour Party vowed to move on from. 

The PN, though unlikely, might also just have an ace up its sleeve that may not win the election but could put a serious dent in the massive margin the Labour Party has managed to muster since taking over in 2013. 

That could be disastrous for Abela and expect the Prime Minister to face major internal challenges even if the PN manages to half the margin to a still enormous 20,000 votes. 

Meanwhile, Abela might see many new faces he handpicked for parliamentary roles, like Oliver Scicluna, Andy Ellul, Jonathan Attard, and even Minister Clyde Caruana fail to get the required votes to win a seat beyond 2022. 

As mentioned, long time candidates have built up an already significant support base within their districts, with newcomers forced to work tirelessly to change the minds of their constituents without starting a civil war within the party. 

It puts them at a major disadvantage and might see candidates resort to dirty tactics to pip their party colleagues to the coveted spot. 

Abela has played his hand and now all eyes will be on him and his party to see whether he can maintain electoral dominance to 2027 and beyond. He’ll be hoping his gamble pays off. 

What do you think of the short election campaign?